The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts that Kazakhstan’s base rate will fall to around 16% by the end of 2026.
This is stated in the bank’s macroeconomic forecast.
“In 2027–2028, the rate cut will continue as inflation approaches the target level. In the absence of new shocks and provided that a sustained slowdown in inflation is confirmed, monetary conditions will gradually ease,” the analysts noted.
The bank expects the base rate to average 12.7% in 2027 and 9.1% in 2028.
“A gradual reduction in the base rate will contribute to sustainable economic growth. As inflation slows and the base rate is forecast to fall, monetary conditions will become less tight. Therefore, a reduction in the base rate in 2027–2028 will support economic activity and GDP growth at around 5.5%,” the bank said in a statement.
It should be noted that on 5 June 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to lower the base rate from 18% to 17%. In May, annual inflation fell by 2.5 percentage points to 10.4%.
