With annual agricultural export revenues exceeding $17 billion, Türkiye ranks among the leading food exporters in the region. However, 52 years of econometric data show that a permanent 1% decline in rainfall erodes agricultural value added by approximately 0.53% over the long term.[i] This vulnerability necessitates addressing the pressure of climate change on the agricultural system not merely as an environmental issue, but as a macroeconomic concern that directly shapes food security, export revenue, and rural well-being.
Türkiye derives approximately 6% of its total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from agricultural production and employs roughly 18% of its total workforce in this sector. This ratio is approximately four and a half times the EU average.[ii]Agricultural input prices, food inflation, and the income structure of the rural population are closely intertwined. Climate projections place the Mediterranean basin and the Central Anatolian Plateau among the most stressed agricultural regions of the 21st century. By 2050, average temperatures are expected to rise by 1.5–3 degrees, and precipitation patterns are projected to exhibit more extreme seasonal variations.[iii]
The year 2026 offers a promising exception in this regard: Minister of Agriculture and Forestry İbrahim Yumaklı has informed the public that production will recover by May 2026 following last year’s losses due to frost and drought, noting that this has indeed been the rainiest year in the past 66 years and that reservoir levels have risen above 75%.[iv] President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also strongly endorsed this assessment on May 12, 2026, during the World Farmers’ Day program: Emphasizing that fertilizer and fertilizer raw material stocks have been secured at sufficient levels, Erdoğan stated that Türkiye maintains its position as the world’s third-largest producer of vegetables and fourth-largest producer of fruits. The World Bank-supported Türkiye Agrifood Sector Transformation Project was also shared with the public at the same meeting.[v]
In terms of foreign trade, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) May 2026 projections reveal concrete signs of domestic recovery: Türkiye’s barley imports are projected to drop from 1.3 million tons to just 150,000 tons in the 2026/27 season. This dramatic contraction confirms that the domestic barley harvest has rebounded strongly. On the other hand, the USDA estimates that global grain demand will exceed supply during the 2026/2027 period. This finding once again highlights the systemic risk of managing food security through policies reliant on external markets.[vi] This positive outlook may be the result of favorable short-term weather conditions. However, certain structural vulnerabilities are not easily resolved and, in this regard, represent critical issues that require long-term solutions.
The econometric analysis I conducted, covering the period 1970–2021 and performed within the framework of the ARDL(4,0,1,0,2,0) boundary test, exceeds the 1% critical threshold with an F-statistic of 8.71. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric analysis is a method used to examine variables from both long- and short-term perspectives. The fact that it does not require the series to be stationary provides flexibility and ease in the analysis. In this analysis, the most pronounced long-term flexibility is related to precipitation; the Central Anatolian grain basins, where the irrigation rate is relatively low, are the regions most directly affected by this sensitivity. The fact that the temperature variable does not measurably affect national production can be interpreted as stemming from the temperature effect operating indirectly through regional heterogeneity.
Regarding structural variables, the elasticity of the agricultural capital stock is positive and highly significant; conversely, the reduction in production resulting from an increase in the amount of agricultural land indicates a lack of economies of scale due to the entry of marginal lands into production.
In addition to the above analysis, multiple crises can also be discussed. For example, the U.S.-Israel-Iran War that erupted in February 2026 and the restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are severely disrupting the global fertilizer supply chain. Given that Iran and the Gulf region account for a significant share of global nitrogen fertilizer supply, this pressure is directly reflected in Türkiye’s agricultural sector.[vii] On the other hand, as of April 2026, the Consumer Price Index in Türkiye has risen to 32.37%, while the Producer Price Index has reached 28.59%. In other words, the persistence of food and input inflation at these levels underscores the importance of increasing agricultural production efficiency.[viii]The trajectory of supply and demand inflation at these levels also brings to the forefront a point that deserves special emphasis.
According to data compiled by Anadolu Agency from a scientific report, the Black Sea basin and region are facing a trend four times the global average rate of warming. A 4°C warming scenario for the Black Sea basin (by 2070) has firmly established itself on the scientific agenda as of 2026.[ix] On the other hand, Türkiye is taking concrete steps to address this pressure: 2026 has been declared the “Year of Wind”; a new 1,500 MW wind energy tender has been conducted under the YEKA framework. This choice serves not only to reduce emissions but is also a direct tool aimed at preserving the competitiveness of the agricultural sector by partially replacing energy costs for agricultural inputs with renewable energy.
In light of all this information, the following conclusion can be emphasized. These findings highlight multiple urgent priorities from an agricultural policy perspective. First, irrigation capacity must be expanded and water use efficiency improved: State Water Works data indicates that only approximately 60% of irrigation potential is currently utilized.[x]Second, alternative supply sources and domestic production capacity must be urgently developed to address the fertilizer supply vulnerability created by the Iran-Hormuz Crisis. Third, agricultural land consolidation programs must be accelerated; productivity per plot in consolidated areas increases by an average of 30 to 40 percent.[xi]
Under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), five sectors—including fertilizers—have entered the final phase starting in 2026; The European Commission published the CBAM certificate price for the first quarter of 2026 as 75.36 euros/tCO2e on April 7, 2026, and announced that the purchase of certificates from the common central platform will begin as of February 2027.[xii] The fact that COP31 will be held in Antalya presents a negotiation window in this context: the timing is favorable for bringing the national agriculture-climate adaptation agenda to the international negotiation table, strengthening the dialogue on green standards with the EU, and assessing the regional demand potential arising from climate-induced supply shortages.
For Türkiye, climate adaptation is no longer merely an environmental agenda but an economic strategy that determines agricultural competitiveness and the balance of foreign trade. The unusually rainy weather pattern of 2026 does not alter this structural framework. Geopolitical pressures on fertilizer prices and the rapid warming trend in the Black Sea basin are increasing the long-term costs of delaying adaptation investments.
[i] Özdemir, M.G. (2025). The impact of climate change on agricultural value added: An application to Türkiye (Doctoral dissertation, Thesis No. 10596205). Kırıkkale University, Institute of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. YÖK National Thesis Center. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/ Rainfall elasticity +0.527 (p<0.10); ARDL(4,0,1,0,2,0); F=8.706. Advisor: Prof. Dr. Hacı Bayram IŞIK.
[ii] World Bank, World Development Indicators; Eurostat, Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Statistics, 2023 edition.
[iii] IPCC, Sixth Assessment Report — AR6 WG II, 2022, Chapter 13.
[iv] Tarım ve Orman Bakanı İbrahim Yumaklı açıklaması, Mayıs 2026; Daily Sabah. https://www.dailysabah.com/ Baraj doluluk verisi: Devlet Su İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü (DSİ) haftalık bülten, Mayıs 2026. Bkz. https://www.dsi.gov.tr/
[v] Anadolu Agency (AA), “President Erdoğan: Türkiye Protected Its Food Supply Chain Against Conflicts,” May 12, 2026. See https://www.aa.com.tr/ and https://prizrenpost.com/tr/erdogan-turkiye-catismalarin-ortasinda-gida-tedarik-zincirini-basariyla-korudu/
[vi] USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), Mayıs 2026; Miller Magazine, “USDA Küresel Tahıl Talebi 2026/27”, Mayıs 2026.
[vii] IFA (International Fertilizer Association), Fertilizer Outlook 2024–2028, Paris: IFA, 2024. İran, küresel üre üretiminin yaklaşık %6–8’ini, Körfez ülkeleri (BAE, Suudi Arabistan, Katar) ise yaklaşık %12–15’ini karşılamaktadır. Bkz. https://www.fertilizer.org/
[viii] Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Domestic Producer Price Index (DPPI), April 2026. See https://www.tuik.gov.tr/
[ix] Temperatures in the Black Sea basin could rise by as much as 4 degrees by 2070. See https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/yesilhat/bilim/karadeniz-havzasindaki-isinma-2070e-kadar-4-dereceyi-bulabilir/1830085
[x] General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works, 2023 Annual Activity Report, Ankara: DSİ Publications, 2024.
[xi] General Directorate of Agricultural Reform, Activity Report on Land Consolidation and On-Farm Development Services, Ankara: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of the Republic of Türkiye, 2024.
[xii] European Parliament and Council of the European Union, Regulation (EU) 2023/956, Official Journal of the European Union, L 130, May 16, 2023; European Commission, Price of CBAM certificates, Q1 2026 price: 75.36 euros/tCO2e, April 7, 2026. https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism/price-cbam-certificates_en; UNFCCC, COP31 — Antalya, Türkiye, November 9–20, 2026. https://unfccc.int/cop31
