The Belt-Road Project was developed by China with a global vision, the first phase was concerned with a connection between Britain and China and the line was defined as Iron Silk Road. The goal, which was adopted on the created project, is the arrival of the train that set out from Britain or China to another point through Central Asia, Caucasus, Balkans, and Europe line. However, the changes in balances and equations in world politics, have caused damage to the tie established between China and Britain.
Britain, especially, has started to exhibit anti-Chinese attitudes in many regions and issues, including the Indo-Pacific. One of the most significant examples of this is the AUKUS agreement signed between the United States of America (USA), Australia and Britain. With AUKUS, the London administration, at one point, has turned into one of the main actors and supportive powers of containment policy actively used by Washington in the Cold War period.
Britain, which has adopted a harsh attitude against China, obviously confronted Russia with the Russia-Ukraine War. The London administration, which has continuously expanded and deepened the sanctions imposed on Moscow, is among the actors that most support the Ukrainian Army. It is brought to the agenda that this situation led to the decrease of the importance of Britain in the eyes of the states in Asia, its influence being broken and even being seen as an enemy. Accordingly, the center of the Iron Silk Road, which ended in Britain, began to change. Therefore, it can be stated that new actors that provide the connection, trade and transportation between Asia and Europe have emerged, and a new mission has been determined.
Despite the decreasing importance of the UK, especially in the eyes of Russia and China, and the mushrooming tension in relations, relations between Europe and Asia continue through new centers. Because Europe is a significant market and China is a cheap production center. In fact, China continues to sustain its importance in this regard and the center in Europe is shifting to Germany.
There are various reasons for the increasing importance of Germany in the eyes of Asian countries and its transformation into a center. First, the Berlin administration adopted a softer attitude towards Moscow than London, because of being dependent on Russia for energy. One of the most important criticisms during the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine War in Europe was that Germany was more reluctant to send military aid to Ukraine. Berlin’s failure to take a harsh stance and its approach to sending support brought along discussions that cracked voices were forming within NATO.
On the other hand, Germany takes a more distant approach to the USA’s process of “demonizing” Russia and China and its propaganda. Because when Russia is close to Germany; the USA is far from Germany. It is also obvious that the damage suffered by Germany due to the war will not be compensated by the Washington administration. Furthermore, it is known that Germany, one of the most substantial countries in Europe, wants to follow a foreign policy away from the influence of the USA and to convert the European Union (EU) into a more effective actor after Brexit.
On the other hand, Berlin has a Eurasian policy from the past. In this context, Germany tries to overcome the tension between Russia and China with the USA with the least casualties and to realize their interests at the maximum level. At this point, it is understood that Germany is trying to fill the gap in the Eurasian geography because of the policies followed by the UK after leaving the EU. At this point, the question may be asked why Germany did not turn to India. Even though it is an important country in the Non-Aligned Movement, India is a former British colony, the New Delhi administration did not adopt a harsh attitude towards the USA and Britain as much as Beijing, the capital from the USA and Britain shifted to India and the investment to be made in the country in question could not be indirectly affected. However, it can be said that it would mean the continuation of the influence of Britain and the USA.
It can be thought that one of the reasons for Germany to turn to China is related to the changing balances within the EU. Because the Iron Silk Road is UK-based, it can be read as a representation of the UK’s influence on the EU. However, the fact that the center is in Germany will both consolidate Berlin’s hand and enable it to gain significant gains in competition with Paris. In addition, an EU, freed from the influence of London, will turn into a much more useful tool for Berlin, which wants to influence the wider Eurasian geopolitics. Especially in the recent period, the increasing activities of the EU, especially in the Caucasus and Central Asia, in parallel with Germany, draw attention.
Finally, it should be noted that; Germany has not developed an open reaction against China. Because, although Germany is an important industrial country, it does not want to see China as a competitor in various matters. Because China is one of the countries that come to the fore in terms of resources such as energy, iron steel and lithium. In this sense, it can be argued that Germany, which has suffered a significant loss due to the sanctions imposed on Russia, wants to compensate for the said damage through its relations with China.
As it can be understood, the relations and visits that Germany has recently developed with Central Asian countries and China are very significant. These visits will not only affect the relations between the two states. However, it is possible to say that Germany’s influence and activities will increase in the wide Eurasian geography covered by the Middle Corridor. As a matter of fact, the line between Europe and China, which is likely to be damaged due to the policy followed by the UK, will continue to develop without losing its importance.
In this sense, the visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Beijing during a period of tense relations between the USA and China is remarkable. Also, “How to Avoid a New Cold War in a Multipolar Age,” the German leader wrote in Foreign Affairs. In the analysis titled, “How can we remain independent actors in a world that has become multipolar?”, refers to Europe. The search for the answer to the question is also a message that cannot be ignored. In the article, Scholz emphasizes that the Germans will be positioned as “guarantors of European security”, “bridge actors within the EU” and “defenders of solutions against global problems”.[1] Therefore, Scholz has revealed that he wants Europe to become a pole by acting independently under the leadership of Germany in the world order that he argues is evolving towards multipolarity. Because it is argued that a multipolar world should be encouraged by the Berlin administration in Germany.[2]
In a nutshell, Britain’s leaving the EU, acting with the USA at the point of encircling China and taking a tough stance against Moscow during the Russia-Ukraine War; seems to have damaged London’s prestige in Eurasia and its position in Europe. Britain, which left the EU, positioned Russia and China as rivals with the effect of acting relatively more independently and confirmed this with its policies. However, due to the economic losses experienced by Germany and the need for Russia in terms of energy, it is more cautious, and China is still a relatively cheap production center in a period of augmenting inflation in the world; While forestalling the Berlin administration from adopting a harsh attitude towards the countries in Asia; It also serves to transform Germany into the destination of the Belt-Road Project. In short, Germany, which has turned into a center in Eurasia, aims to make the EU a pole under its control.
[1] Olaf Scholz, “The Global Zeitenwende How to Avoid a New Cold War in a Multipolar Era”, Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/olaf-scholz-global-zeitenwende-how-avoid-new-cold-war, (Date of Accession: 05.12.2022).
[2] Stefan Mair, “Strategic Ties, Not Blocs: Why Germany Should Promote a Multipolar Order”, 49security, https://fourninesecurity.de/en/2022/09/23/why-germany-should-promote-a-multipolar-order, (Date of Accession: 05.12.2022).
