The US-Israel-Iran War has significantly contributed to the change of many rules, understandings, and factors at the international level. Developing new strategies in several areas, primarily the global energy sector, but also national security, defense industry, and maritime trade, has become an important part of the agenda for states.
Even if the war waged by the US and Israel against Iran were to end, the difficulties faced by suppliers due to damaged facilities, disrupted logistics networks, and increased risks to maritime transport could lead to consumers and businesses worldwide facing higher fuel prices for weeks, or even months. Since the start of the war, global oil prices have risen by more than 25%, driving up fuel costs worldwide.[1]The conflict has led to the disruption of approximately one-fifth of the global supply of crude oil and natural gas due to Iran’s interruption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure in the region.[2]Additionally, due to disruptions in maritime transport caused by the US-Israel and Iran conflicts in the Gulf, insurance companies have begun canceling war risk insurance for ships in the region. This decision was made following an increase in operational risks, such as damage to tankers or ships being stranded in ports, and incidents that resulted in the loss of at least two lives.[3] When viewed in a narrower context, the current crisis will inevitably have a negative impact on the local economies of countries in the region that are heavily dependent on energy exports.
Therefore, it is noteworthy that the cost of the war is increasing day by day. The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, is located between Iran and Oman. This strait is one of the main maritime transport routes connecting the oil-rich countries of the Middle East to the rest of the world. A significant portion of energy exports is carried out through this strait. Therefore, any disruptions greatly affect the markets.
Another worth mentioning aspect is that the emerging geopolitical perception brings with it a new order. However, for Russia, which is a global energy exporter, any new structure is actually similar to a return to the old order. Moscow is acting in its own interests in the current situation, seeking to refocus the world energy markets on itself. It seems that Moscow is carefully monitoring the increase in demand for Russian oil and natural gas, aiming to take advantage of the crisis in the Middle East. It is also worth considering the energy factor. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a disruption in energy supplies from Iran and the Gulf region in general could lead to a global energy crisis. This scenario appears entirely in line with Russia’s interests. However, it is completely incompatible with China’s vision. China is one of the countries heavily dependent on oil and natural gas imports.
The escalation of tensions will create an opportunity for Moscow to further expand its shadow fleet for exports. Many countries, especially European countries, will be forced to reassess the dynamics of cooperation with Russia, at least in the energy sector. And this situation will lead to some concessions in Moscow’s favor regarding the Ukraine Crisis. For example, the US Treasury Department has announced that it has temporarily lifted restrictions on Indian oil refineries purchasing Russian oil for a period of thirty days. India will only be able to purchase Russian oil that is already at sea.[4] In general, Russia has refrained from disclosing details of its fuel trade with India.
However, under the Iran-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, Russia will continue to support Iran, particularly in the military sphere. Indeed, a split in the regime in Tehran is not in Moscow’s interests either. A regime change could lead to a reset in relations between the two countries, which would not guarantee positive dialogue.
Russia is not the only one seeking to benefit from the current situation. Similar impacts are also observed in global geopolitics. It is worth recalling the saying attributed to Pittacus of Mytilene, one of the Seven Sages of Ancient Greece: “Know how to wait for the right moment.” The Greek government is acting on this principle in its regional moves. Defense Minister Nikos Dendias said in a statement that Greece would deploy a Patriot missile battery and two F-16 fighter jets to the north of the country to defend neighboring Bulgaria in the event of an escalation of the war in the Middle East. The government has deployed Patriot missiles to the Karpathos Island in the Dodecanese, close to Turkey’s western coast, to strengthen the defense of Greek territory against ballistic attacks.[5]Since the start of the war, Greece has also sent two frigates and four F-16 fighter jets to Cyprus, which has been targeted by an Iranian-made drone attack. It has been reported that two F-16 fighter jets will be deployed to an airfield in northern Greece to provide additional air support to Bulgaria.[6]
The deployment of Patriot air defense systems to these islands, particularly to locations such as Karpathos, which were handed over to Greece under the 1947 Paris Peace Treaty on the condition that they remain non-military, is considered a violation of the treaty and is considered a clear breach of international law. Athens, aiming to strengthen its position in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Balkans by taking advantage of the conflict and crisis surrounding Iran, makes no attempt to hide that it is pursuing such a policy. However, it is predicted that Greece’s ongoing geopolitical pressure efforts on neighboring states will remain limited. Despite all this, Athens is not facing an ordinary Balkan state. It is not exceptional for Turkey to reserve the right to pursue a deterrent policy by responding in kind to aggressive actions from the other side in response to military activity in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea, in order to ensure its own security. It seems inevitable that the Turkish Army will pursue an active strategy to consolidate its military presence in the waters of the region, including the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, Türkiye has sent six F-16 fighter jets to the TRNC.[7]
That said, it would be wise for the Greek side to consider the following words attributed to Pittakos of Mytilene: “Don’t say what you plan to do; if you can’t do it, they will laugh at you.” Seeking to exploit every opportunity in line with the strategy of removing the Turkish Army from Cyprus and weakening it in the Aegean, and using statements that raise tensions in bilateral relations, may ultimately leave Athens facing the principle of geopolitical reciprocity.
Bulgaria, on the other hand, is in close contact with its neighbor Turkey regarding the strengthening of air defense systems along the southeastern wing of the alliance, given the importance of energy and military logistics routes. On the other hand, Bulgaria’s unilateral military coordination with Greece shows that it has strayed from the principle of pursuing a balanced policy.
The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran goes beyond being merely a regional military tension, profoundly affecting global energy markets, maritime trade, and international security balances. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threatening energy supplies have accelerated efforts by various powers and regional actors to exploit the crisis for their own strategic interests. During this period, energy exporters such as Russia are seeking new opportunities, while some regional countries are making military and political moves to strengthen their geopolitical positions. However, increased military activity and mutual displays of force bring with them new risks of tension, particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean. Therefore, the current crisis has multidimensional consequences that must be closely monitored not only in the areas of energy and economy, but also in terms of the future of the regional security structure.
[1] “Iran war threatens prolonged impact on energy markets as oil prices rise”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/8/iran-war-threatens-prolonged-impact-on-energy-markets-as-oil-prices-rise, (Date Accessed: 09.03.2026).
[2] Ibid.
[3] Sarah Shamim and Reuters, “Maritime insurers cancel war risk cover in Gulf: Will it hike energy costs?”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/3/maritime-insurers-cancel-war-risk-cover-in-gulf-will-it-spike-energy-cost, (Date Accessed: 09.03.2026).
[4] Ася Локина, “Минфин США временно разрешил Индии закупать российскую нефть”, DW, https://www.dw.com/ru/izza-vojny-s-iranom-ssa-vremenno-razresili-indii-zakupat-rossijskuu-neft/a-76239850, (Date Accessed: 09.03.2026).
[5] “Greece to deploy Patriots to protect Bulgaria amid Iran war fears”, Hürriyet Daily News, https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/greece-to-deploy-patriots-to-protect-bulgaria-amid-iran-war-fears-219687, (Date Accessed: 09.03.2026).
[6] Ibid.
[7] “Türkiye to deploy six F-16 jets to Turkish Cyprus amid Iran war”, Türkiye Today, https://www.turkiyetoday.com/nation/turkiye-to-deploy-six-f-16-jets-to-northern-cyprus-amid-iran-war-3215852?s=1, (Date Accessed: 09.03.2026).
