North Korea’s arms race, which stands out as one of the most militarized countries in the world, has put Japan and South Korea, the two most important American allies in the Asia Pacific region, in a security dilemma. The United States (US) Defense Intelligence Agency emphasizes that North Korea’s “military first” philosophy, known as “Songun”, is the most important institution in the country and has also become “a means of solving social, economic and political problems”.
The aggressive military posture embodied by this philosophy and North Korea’s advances in nuclear weapons and missile capabilities under the regime of Chairman Kim Jong-un have arguably made it an international rather than a regional threat to peace and stability.
The North Korean military conducted a total of six nuclear device tests in 2006, 2009, 2013, 2016 and 2017. Following the collapse of the Six-Party Nuclear Talks (between China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, Russia, South Korea and the United States) in 2009, North Korea reactivated its nuclear facilities to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons. The US Defense Intelligence Agency reported that North Korea has successfully developed a nuclear warhead that is ‘miniaturized’ or small enough to be mounted on long-range ballistic missiles.
North Korea continues to test missiles of various ranges and capabilities. According to analysts, [i] these tests increase the reliability and precision of North Korea’s missile forces and also improve North Korea’s ability to defeat regional missile defense systems. In 2022, North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time since 2017. The ability of ICBMs to hit targets at significant distances raises concerns that North Korea will now have the potential to strike the United States.
In 2023, these ICBM tests were followed by North Korea’s record number of other missile tests, including a simulated tactical nuclear attack on South Korea in August. North Korea also unveiled a submarine believed to be capable of launching nuclear weapons. There are also concerns that North Korea is developing chemical weapons capabilities.
In line with current concerns, on Saturday, 9 December 2023, the national security advisors of South Korea, the United States and Japan reaffirmed North Korea’s obligation under UN Security Council resolutions to abandon its nuclear weapons program and refrain from military cooperation. South Korean National Security Advisor Cho Tae-yong made this statement at a joint press briefing following trilateral talks in Seoul with his US and Japanese counterparts Jake Sullivan and Takeo Akiba, respectively. “We reaffirmed North Korea’s commitment to denuclearization and cessation of military cooperation in accordance with UN
Security Council resolutions, and agreed to strengthen cooperation among the three countries for strict implementation of this commitment by the international community,” Cho said.
Cho also said that the three sides have agreed on issues such as real-time sharing of North Korea’s missile warning data and the preparation of multi-annual plans for trilateral military exercises, and are committed to continuing trilateral security cooperation in this area without delay. [ii]
In this context, North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile capabilities could pose a serious threat to global security as well as regional instability. The international community needs to step up and even deepen its efforts to find effective diplomatic solutions to this potential threat and strengthen regional cooperation. The trilateral alliance between South Korea, Japan and the United States is touted as one of the cornerstones of security and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. This alliance aims to tackle common concerns such as the North Korean nuclear threat, regional instability and maritime security.
Future strategic analysis could assess the potential actions of this trilateral alliance and their impact on regional dynamics. The trilateral alliance could focus on joint projects to strengthen regional stability and cooperation. Economic cooperation, energy projects and joint initiatives in the field of science and technology can support regional development and increase trust between countries. Maritime security is an important issue in this region. The trilateral alliance can strengthen naval cooperation to secure sea lanes and prevent conflicts. They can take preventive measures against instability in the region through joint exercises and maritime security operations. Given China’s growing influence in the region, it is important for the trilateral alliance to manage relations with China in a balanced manner.
Since 2006, the UN Security Council has adopted a series of resolutions considered to be one of the most comprehensive multilateral sanctions regimes in history, as well as sanctions imposed on North Korea for its nuclear weapons development and related activities. The United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and a number of other countries and international organizations have also imposed additional sanctions on their own.
Under the terms of the UN sanctions regime, the following prohibitions and restrictions were imposed on North Korea: [iii]
- Prohibition of trade in arms and military equipment, dual-use technologies, vehicles, industrial machinery and metals
- Freezing the assets of people involved in the country’s nuclear program
- Ban on imports of certain luxury goods
- Bans on exports of electrical equipment, coal, minerals, seafood and other food and agricultural products, wood, textiles and stone
- Restrictions on North Korea’s labor exports
- Restriction on imports of petroleum and refined petroleum products
- Ban on natural gas imports
- Restrictions on fishing rights
- Restrictions on scientific and technical cooperation with North Korea
- Ban UN members from opening North Korean bank accounts and banking offices
US unilateral sanctions restrict a wider range of economic activities and target a broader list of individuals and businesses than UN sanctions. While US sanctions are primarily aimed at preventing Pyongyang from developing missile and nuclear technology, they also come in response to North Korean cyberattacks, such as the 2014 breach of Sony’s computer systems and the 2017 WannaCry ransomware attack; human rights violations; censorship; and other activities. In addition, the US has sanctioned banks, companies and individuals outside North Korea for supporting its weapons program. In this context, it has fined companies that violate export controls. These sanctions were recently expanded in coordination with Japan, Australia and South Korea after North Korea launched its satellite in November 2023. [iv]
Diplomatic efforts and economic sanctions are an important tool to push North Korea to halt its nuclear weapons program. The international community can try to find a solution through negotiations with North Korea. However, for negotiations to be serious and binding, it is important to ensure the trust of the parties. But these efforts have not yielded results in the historical context. The effectiveness of deterrence strategies will be enhanced by international cooperation and a common approach by all parties. It is also important that these strategies encourage North Korea not only to abandon its nuclear weapons program, but also to contribute to peace and stability in the region.
[i] “S. Korea, U.S., Japan Reaffirm N. Korea’s Denuclearization Obligation”, Yonhap News Agency, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231209000800315?section=news, (Date Accesion: 09.12.2023).
[ii] Ibıd.
[iii] “North Korea: A Threat To Global Security?”, Lords Library, https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/north-korea-a-threat-to-global-security/, (Date Accesion: 09.12.2023).
[iv] Ibıd.
