The established codes of the international system established after World War II have completely broken away from the old order taught in history books as we approach the end of 2025. Donald Trump completing his first year of his second term in the White House is the final blow that ends the ancient destiny-bound alliance between Washington and Brussels. Although the two sides of the Atlantic remain geographically in place, they have drifted quite far apart in their mental maps.
Emmanuel Macron’s diagnosis of NATO’s brain death, made years ago and which drew significant backlash at the time, is now being confirmed by steps taken by the United States (US), which is currently the leader of the alliance. The Western bloc is being dragged into an ontological crisis vortex due to internal dynamics of discord, lack of vision, and conflicts of interest, rather than being destroyed by an external threat. The practices exhibited by the Washington administration over the past twelve months prove that the “America First” rhetoric is much more than a simple populist slogan; it has become the new operating system of the American state mind.
The US views its role as global policeman as an unnecessary commitment that places a financial burden on itself, and reduces the concept of alliance to a purely commercial balance sheet, that is, a give-and-take relationship. This radical shift in American foreign policy is sending shockwaves through the capitals of Europe, which have outsourced their security architecture to Washington for eighty years. Europe, which owes its prosperity to cheap energy, its security to the American nuclear umbrella, and its development to rules-based global trade, now faces the collapse of all three pillars.
Trump’s explicit targeting of NATO members that do not contribute to the alliance’s budget and his rhetoric making Article 5 conditional fundamentally undermines the doctrine of deterrence. This situation creates an existential trauma for the Baltic states and Poland, which feel the Russian threat breathing down their necks, while forcing continental leaders such as Germany and France into utopian pursuits, such as a European Army, which could take decades to implement. However, it is economically irrational for European states, which are struggling with economic stagnation, declining industrial production, and social security systems creaking under the weight of aging populations, to finance massive defense budgets.
The economic dimension of the issue has the potential to cause effects that are far more destructive and disruptive than the security crisis. The additional tariffs imposed by the White House on steel, aluminum, and automotive products originating from the European Union on national security grounds have turned the Atlantic alliance into a trade war arena where allies are strangling each other. Washington has abandoned the idea of viewing Europe as a partner that will stand by its side in its global hegemony struggle with China and has instead coded it as an economic rival that must be brought into line and whose market share must be reduced.
The U.S. Treasury is using the dollar’s privilege as the global reserve currency like a ruthless weapon, threatening even European companies with economic sanctions in an attempt to keep them in line. This approach not only drives the final nail into the coffin of the liberal economic order that has prevailed since the 1944 Bretton Woods conference, but also opens the floodgates to a wild, unregulated mercantilism where might makes right. European industry is caught in a vise of high energy costs and American protectionism. Furthermore, the shift of global companies’ production bases to America or Asia is making the threat of deindustrialization in Continental Europe a concrete reality. This process is paving the way for the erosion of centrist parties in European politics and the rise of the far right and anti-system movements, turning political instability into a chronic and unmanageable disease.
The roadmap followed in the Ukraine Crisis is also the clearest manifestation of this major break on the ground. The Trump administration has bypassed the Kiev government and Brussels bureaucracy entirely, establishing direct channels of dialogue with Moscow and demonstrating its determination to end the war at any cost. Washington’s move, even if it means compromising Ukraine’s territorial integrity, is primarily motivated by the White House’s determination not to spend American taxpayers’ money on endless wars overseas.
This situation has created a deep rift within the European Union between those who want to defeat Russia and those who are willing to accept peace. Eastern European countries are realizing that they will have to fend for themselves once American guarantees come to an end, and are rushing into a regional arms race in a state of panic. This structural disintegration, confusion, and period of stagnation within the Western bloc poses serious risks for Türkiye, but at the same time opens up tremendous geopolitical opportunities.
Ankara now sees much more clearly that its long-standing insistence on a national defense industry and strategic autonomy doctrine is a very sound approach. The crisis of confidence between Washington and Brussels may enable Türkiye to consolidate its position as a regional power center and expand its sphere of influence. The US’s partial withdrawal from the Middle East and Africa, or its complete shift of focus to the Asia-Pacific basin, creates fertile ground for Türkiye to fill the power vacuum in its immediate neighborhood. In particular, the easing of American pressure in chronic issues such as Syria, Iraq, and Libya could make it easier for Ankara to take more proactive and results-oriented steps in line with its own national security priorities.
In addition, Türkiye is in a unique position to play an indispensable balancing role in this crisis that has engulfed the Western alliance. Ankara’s ability to maintain a pragmatic, interest-based, rational relationship with Washington, while also possessing the military capacity and logistical capabilities to address Europe’s security concerns, elevates it to a game-changing position. Europe may be more dependent than ever on Türkiye’s advanced defense industry, disciplined military, and diplomatic experience to fill the security vacuum left by the US and secure its southern flank.
This new situation could move Ankara-Brussels relations away from fruitless processes such as the membership negotiations that have been on hold for years, and onto a much more realistic and functional basis of security, energy, and defense partnership. Türkiye’s growing soft power in Africa and Central Asia is also critical and of vital importance to Western capital seeking raw material and energy corridors.
Looking at the whole picture, the process we are witnessing shows that the myth of the Western alliance being a unified and unshakeable bloc has collapsed and that states have returned to the principle of looking after their own interests. Washington’s return to isolationist policies is leading to diversification of power centers in the global system and greater flexibility in alliances.
In this new, chaotic, and uncertain equation, those who will survive will be states that move away from blindly clinging to outdated, dysfunctional alliances and instead become flexible, capable of making quick decisions, conducting multifaceted diplomacy, and cutting their own Gordian knots. Ankara has read the codes and signs of this new era years in advance and made preparations accordingly, positioning itself on the stage as an actor that has built its infrastructure, from defense industry to energy diversification, with this vision.
The road ahead for Türkiye is undoubtedly fraught with mines and risks. However, its historical state wisdom, geographical destiny, and geopolitical accumulation indicate that it can transform this chaotic transition process into a story of rise. In this new phase of global politics, the concept of alliance is giving way to momentary cooperation, and the concept of loyalty is giving way to mutual benefit. Türkiye, too, is taking firm and decisive steps toward its goal of becoming an indispensable central country that plays a key role for both sides, moving away from being a peripheral country caught between East and West, by adopting a rational stance in line with this reality.
