Following the resignation of United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the Labour Party has entered a search for a new leader. Andy Burnham, who is currently the only candidate for the post, is expected to assume office in July. After another potential candidate, Wes Streeting, withdrew from the race in Burnham’s favour and announced his support for him, Burnham is likely to become the new prime minister, barring any unexpected development in British politics. Having previously held senior cabinet positions such as Secretary of State for Health and Secretary of State for Culture in earlier Labour governments, and having long maintained a claim to leadership within the party’s centre-left balance, Burnham will have to confront some of the country’s most pressing issues if he becomes prime minister, including economic difficulties, the cost-of-living crisis, public services, and migration.
The primary domestic test for a new government under Burnham’s leadership will be the socio-economic problems that have generated deep public fatigue. The United Kingdom has long been struggling with economic difficulties such as persistent stagflationary tendencies, a high cost of living, and the erosion of real wages. In addition, the structural breakdown of public services, particularly the National Health Service, and budget deficits constitute some of the greatest crisis areas that the new prime minister will have to face.
The issue of irregular migration and asylum seekers, which remains one of the most sensitive fault lines within both Conservative and Labour voter bases, continues to be a key parameter testing public trust in the government. Burnham may have to pursue reforms capable of generating economic growth while also developing a balanced migration-management strategy that can satisfy the electorate.
The new prime minister will also face a highly unstable foreign policy environment at a time when global geopolitical fault lines are shifting. At the centre of these challenges lies the management of the deepening power competition among the United States, Europe, and China. The United Kingdom will have to maintain a delicate balance between its traditional commitment to the transatlantic alliance and the economic and geographical realities of the European continent.
With the Russia-Ukraine War and the escalation of global security threats, the question of how, and to what extent, the United Kingdom will integrate into Europe’s new security architecture has also become a critical agenda item. After Brexit, London became geopolitically more distant from the continent. One of the greatest challenges facing the new government will therefore be whether London can once again assume a more active and constitutive role in European defence doctrines.
In order to understand the United Kingdom’s current position, it is essential to look at its recent political history. During Conservative Party governments between 2010 and 2024, five different prime ministers held office. The Labour government, which has been in power for the last two years, is also now undergoing a change of prime minister. After the controversial Brexit process between 2016 and 2019, the United Kingdom witnessed the premierships of Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak under Conservative governments, and most recently the resignation of Keir Starmer under the Labour government. Throughout this period, the country has struggled to follow a stable course in both domestic and foreign policy. No government during this period was able to reverse Britain’s economic stagnation, secure public support on the issue of migration, or introduce significant changes in foreign policy.[i]
When the political legacy of his predecessors is examined, it becomes clear that the Starmer period, much like those before it, was largely consumed by crisis management and difficult foreign policy issues, including regional conflicts, trade wars, and the preservation of international alliances. Therefore, the new prime minister will also have to deal simultaneously with the country’s economic and social problems and with rapidly changing global and regional balances and challenges.
Andy Burnham’s foremost and most difficult foreign policy test will be to clarify the position the United Kingdom will adopt in the face of the Trump administration’s unpredictable strategies towards Europe, the Middle East, and China. Trump’s suggestions that the United States could withdraw from NATO, the cornerstone of transatlantic security, as well as his harsh threats towards European allies, are placing enormous pressure on London’s traditional security doctrine. Over the last decade, every prime minister and government that has taken office in London has faced pressure to allocate more resources to defence while also trying to overcome economic problems.
In such a conjuncture, Keir Starmer’s most concrete and strategic foreign policy achievement was to repair the ties broken after Brexit and to implement an official EU-UK defence integration. The historic agreement signed between the United Kingdom and the European Union on 19 May 2025 established the “United Kingdom-European Union Security and Defence Partnership” in order to increase institutional cooperation on common asymmetric threats, the provision of maritime security, and the sustainability of military and logistical support for Ukraine. Thus, during the Starmer period, the view that “the United Kingdom is an inseparable part of European security” was clearly articulated.
From the final period of Conservative Party rule to the Labour Party government, the United Kingdom’s China policy has also followed an uneven course. Whether China should be defined by the United Kingdom as a “threat” or as a “systemic challenge” has become one of the most important questions that London governments have had to answer in recent years. While Liz Truss tended to define China as a clear “threat” to the United Kingdom’s national security, Rishi Sunak softened this discourse by describing China not as a “threat” but as a “systemic challenge.” He chose a more balanced yet reactive line, focused on protecting national security without completely severing economic relations. With Keir Starmer’s rise to power, London sought to reject slogan-driven and periodical approaches and to place relations with Beijing on a more rational and institutional basis. In this direction, Keir Starmer attempted to develop a principled policy towards China based on both cooperation and competition.
Crises spreading across different geographies at the global level, the unpredictable fractures created by the Trump administration within the transatlantic alliance, and London’s frequent changes of prime minister all make it more difficult to build long-term, stable, and sustainable grand strategies in foreign policy. In the new period, the China legacy that Andy Burnham will inherit will stand at the very centre of these structural uncertainties and the search for strategic direction.
[i] “Andy Burnham-a potential candidate for the UK Prime Minister”, Vietnam.vn, https://www.vietnam.vn/tr/andy-burnham-ung-vien-thu-tuong-anh-tiem-nang, (Date Accessed: 26.06.2026).
