The concept of security, which has undergone various changes and transformations in the historical process, is now divided into two traditional and new security. Traditional or classical security defines the period before 1990. In this process, especially the security of the state was a priority and importance were given to the use of military force in the fight against threats. However, with the Oil Crisis in 1973, it was understood that not all problems could be solved by using military force. On the other hand, with the conceptualization of the Copenhagen School, traditional security has entered the transformation process and a new security understanding has emerged. For this reason, in the period since 1990; in other words, as a result of the liberal values coming to the fore with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, concepts such as environmental security, food security and human security have started to be discussed as well as the security of the states. As a result, state security and the use of military force have lost importance and new threat sources and new tools have emerged in the fight against threats.
As it can be understood, one of the issues that gain importance within the scope of the new security understanding is environmental security. Global warming and climate change are among the most discussed problems today. In particular, the effect of the environment on human life and societies in various aspects has led to an increase in the importance given to environmental safety. Because natural disasters due to climate change harm individuals, societies and states. For example, one of the most threatening problems in Central Asia today is water scarcity. However, Central Asia is one of the world’s food production centers. Kazakhstan has become the world’s 12th largest wheat exporter by exporting 1.1 billion dollars of wheat in 2020.[1]
Kazakhstan desires to increase its capacity in wheat production and become one of the production centers of the world. However, for this to happen, water scarcity in the region must be tackled. Due to the rainy weather in Kazakhstan at the beginning of 2022, wheat production in the country increased between 15% and 20%. In this context, the production amount is expected to exceed 13 million tons.[2] However, the Russia-Ukraine War, which started in the early stages of 2022, endangered the world’s grain exports and brought food security to the fore. In this process, Russia stopped grain exports against the sanctions. The Astana administration also restricted grain exports. Considering that Tajikistan imports 94% of grain from Kazakhstan, the developments have caused many countries to worry and once again revealed how important global climate change, food security and water are.[3]
The Asian Development Bank has recently published a numerical analysis of the growing environmental threat in Central Asia. According to the data in the analysis, water volumes in Siri Derya and Amu Derya will decrease between 10% and 15% by 2050. It is estimated that the decrease in the two rivers that constitute the lifeblood of Central Asia will reach 30% in Siri Derya and 40% in Amu Derya until 2050-2100. This decrease will lead to an increase in the need for water in the countries and an increase in the water deficit. For example, according to the data, as a result of the said decrease, the water deficit in Uzbekistan will increase to 7 billion cubic meters in 2030 and 15 billion cubic meters in 2050.[4]
On the other hand, Kyrgyzstan is known as the roof of Central Asia. For this reason, there are important glaciers in the mountains of the country. However, it is thought that the melting of glaciers will continue depending on the changing climatic conditions in the last 50-60 years. This situation is also likely to trigger natural disasters such as floods and landslides.[5]
Water is also equivalent to energy production. Because the rivers mustn’t dry out for the hydroelectric power plants to continue production. However, experiencing water scarcity causes significant problems in food safety; excessive rains cause disasters such as unexpected floods and landslides.[6]
It is estimated that disasters related to climate change will cause a 30% decrease in the cropping rate in Central Asia by 2050. Droughts and floods will damage 1.3% of the region’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). One of the risks that may arise due to disasters is internal migration. It is stated that approximately five million people in Central Asia will have to relocate due to the climate crisis. This can bring various problems, including humanitarian crises.[7]
As a result, climate change threatens Central Asia more and more every day. For example, the disappearance process of melting glaciers in Kyrgyzstan will accelerate. It can be said that states will try to adapt to the change that is taking place in this process. However, this will come with a significant cost. If necessary, measures are not taken, deepening crises will lead to important economic, social and political problems. This situation forces the actors to act together. One of the issues addressed in the cooperation processes between the states of the region is environmental security and climate change. In other words, the states of the region are aware of the risks faced by Central Asia.
[1] “Wheat in Kazakhstan”, OEC, https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporter/kaz, (Date of Accession: 26.11.2022).
[2] Almaz Kumenov, “Kazakhstan expects grain bounty, but farmers still feel at risk”, Eurasianet, https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-expects-grain-bounty-but-farmers-still-feel-at-risk, (Date of Accession: 26.11.2022).
[3] Farangis Najibullah, “Central Asian Neighbors To Feel The Pain As Kazakhstan Suspends Wheat, Flour Exports”, RFE/RL, https://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-suspends-wheat-exports-neighbors-pain/31803803.html, (Date of Accession: 26.11.2022).
[4] “By the Numbers: Climate Change in Central Asia”, Asian Development Bank, https://www.adb.org/news/features/numbers-climate-change-central-asia, (Date of Accession: 26.11.2022).
[5] Aynı yer.
[6] Bermet Talant, “How Is Climate Change Affecting Central Asia?”, RFE/RL, https://www.rferl.org/a/central-asia-climate-change-water-talant/31924317.html#:~:text=Scientists%20predict%20that%20the%20region,internal%20climate%20migrants%20by%202050., (Date of Accession: 26.11.2022).
[7] “Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia”, The World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca/brief/climate-change-in-europe-and-central-asia, (Date of Accession: 26.11.2022).
