At the current stage of the 40-day U.S./Israel-Iran war, a 15-day temporary ceasefire has been established between the parties. Indeed, it is evident that this ceasefire emerged as a result of intense diplomatic efforts between the parties and possesses a highly fragile structure. However, upon examining the demands put forward by Iran during the ceasefire process, it becomes clear that these demands are more comprehensive and expanded compared to pre-war expectations. In this context, it appears unlikely that the demands summarized by Iran in 10 points will be accepted by the U.S. and Israel.
The Fragile Ceasefire Process
If the U.S. and Israel were to accept these demands, the justification for the war and the gains achieved during the conflict would be seriously called into question. This situation would create a scenario that would be difficult to explain, particularly to the domestic publics of U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Therefore, when evaluating the parties’ current positions, while the demands of the warring parties are maximalist, there is a deep chasm between their expectations. Consequently, the likelihood that this 15-day ceasefire process will lead to a lasting peace appears very slim.
Iran’s Geopolitical and Geostrategic Importance in the Context of the Middle East
It is not possible for the United States to completely withdraw from the Middle East or abandon the region. The Middle East’s geopolitical and geoeconomic importance places it at the center of the global power struggle, particularly in the context of energy resources. Key corridors and logistics hubs that form the lifeblood of global trade—such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal—are located in the Middle East. In this context, the oil revenues of the Gulf states are of great importance to the United States. Iran possesses the world’s third-largest oil reserves after Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, and the second-largest natural gas reserves after Russia. Iran borders the Turkestan region via the Caspian Sea. Iran’s proximity to strategic access routes via the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Mediterranean Sea enhances the country’s geostrategic importance.
The Parties’ Efforts to Buy Time and the Global Collapse of U.S. Hegemony
The 15-day ceasefire period will be a time when the parties attempt to reorganize their military capabilities. During this process, it will be observed that the warring parties are working to strengthen their military ammunition and supply chains. In short, the parties are playing for time through the ceasefire. Consequently, the 15-day ceasefire will provide the parties with the opportunity to increase their military stockpiles and reposition themselves. In this context, after the U.S. and Israel complete their military preparations, they will attack Iran again. If the US fails to defeat Iran, the global decline of US hegemony will accelerate even further.
Iran’s Power Struggle in the Proxy War
The Iran War is not merely a regional conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran. On the contrary, this war lies at the heart of a broader global power struggle. In this context, this war is:
- Russia’s struggle against Europe and the U.S.
- China’s struggle against the U.S.
- India’s struggle against China
- Britain’s struggle against the U.S.
- The U.S. and Israel’s struggle against Iran’s foreign policy, which is shaped by the Shia sect, and against Shia expansionism.
The power struggle among the actors mentioned above is a reflection of proxy wars centered on Iran. In this struggle, numerous actors and hegemonic powers are striving to:
- Establish dominance over global oil and natural gas reserves,
- Gain control over global and regional trade corridors, logistics hubs, and ports, and
- Establish dominance over critical minerals (rare earth elements).
Furthermore, China’s efforts to strengthen the position of its currency, the yuan (petro-yuan), against the US dollar (petro-dollar) reflect the economic dimension of the proxy war with Iran.
Consequently, within the current balance of power, it appears quite difficult for the US and Israel to achieve a decisive victory against Iran, which has the indirect support of China and Russia.
Expected Outcomes and Scenarios on a Regional and Global Scale Should Iran Win the War:
· If Iran wins the war, Russia and China could achieve significant gains against the U.S. without fighting,
· Just as the U.S. brought down the Soviet Union without firing a shot in 1991, a similar victory could be achieved by Russia and China against the U.S. if Iran wins the war,
· Russia could win the war in Ukraine,
· Russia’s influence in Eastern Europe and the Balkans could increase further,
· Due to a shift in U.S. military resources, weapons that would otherwise have to be sent to Ukraine via Europe at a cost could instead be redirected to the Middle East for free,
· NATO could completely disintegrate,
· India might be forced to turn to Russia due to potential disruptions in energy supplies from Gulf countries, which could increase India’s strategic dependence,
· India could drift away from the U.S. and Israeli orbit,
· The U.S. strategy to bolster India against China could fail,
· Security vulnerabilities in Gulf countries could become more apparent, and the U.S.’s role as a security provider for these countries could be called into question,
· There could be a shift in the Gulf countries’ foreign policy orientations toward China, and China’s influence in the region could increase,
- Significant losses could occur in the substantial revenues the U.S. derives from its economic relations with Gulf countries (arms sales and oil revenues),
- Iran’s influence and capacity to exert pressure on Gulf countries could increase,
- The effectiveness of multilateral structures such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS could increase,
- Iran’s ability to exert pressure on Gulf countries could increase further,
- Israel could retreat to its own borders, and its regional influence could diminish,
- The U.S.’s influence at strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal could decline, and its global hegemonic power could collapse rapidly,
- The U.S. could become an island nation within the Americas,
- In Iran, the regime could strengthen and become even more radical, leading to the emergence of a North Korea-style, closed-off governance model, which could accelerate economic contraction and the loss of social welfare,
- Following the emergence of such a closed structure in Iran, Russia and China’s influence could grow further, potentially leading to increased Russian and Chinese influence over Iran’s energy and natural resources,
- The potential outcomes and scenarios regarding the possibility that Turkey and Iran could achieve significant gains at both the regional and global levels if a political administration similar to the Turkish model—one that prioritizes its own interests by adopting liberal policies open to the outside world and pursuing a balanced foreign policy—were to emerge in Iran are encompassed by the entirety of these points.
Expected Consequences and Scenarios at the Regional and Global Levels Should Iran Lose the War:
- Iran’s internal political and social stability could weaken, economic crises could deepen, and instability resembling a civil war could emerge in Iran,
- There could be a sharp increase in irregular migration flows from Iran to Turkey,
- Existing political and economic instability in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon could deepen, and irregular migration from these countries to Turkey could increase,
- These developments could create a widespread environment of instability across the Middle East,
- Israel’s regional and global influence may increase further, and genocides in the Middle East may intensify in line with its so-called “Promised Land” objectives,
- The colonial spheres of influence under U.S. and Israeli hegemony may expand on both regional and global scales,
- The competition among major global powers may continue until a new international order emerges; these potential outcomes and scenarios are encompassed by the entirety of these points.
When analyses from Turkey’s perspective regarding the course of the war in Iran and the potential post-war situation are examined in detail, the following conclusions emerge:
Turkey seeks a region where stability is ensured, the territorial integrity of neighboring countries is preserved, and neighbors pursue peaceful policies. Consequently, Turkey is implementing foreign policy initiatives aimed at enhancing the stability of Iran and improving the welfare levels of all neighboring countries. In this context, the shape of Iran’s political structure following the war will play a decisive role—either positive or negative—in Turkey’s regional and global rise. In summary:
- For this reason, Iran’s adoption of a more inclusive, stable, and balanced governance model after the war is of critical importance for regional stability,
- If Iran adopts a balancing approach in foreign policy, regional and global cooperation between Turkey and Iran could strengthen,
- Conversely, potential crises and scenarios may emerge regarding the possibility that increasing radicalization within the Iranian regime could lead to negative consequences both domestically and regionally.
