On August 18, 2023, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol convened with the leaders of the United States, South Korea, and Japan at Camp David. This summit aimed to establish a framework for trilateral security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Simultaneously, it marked the first independent summit among these three countries. Previously, there had been 12 trilateral summits, all held as sideline events to larger meetings. The three leaders discussed how to strengthen security collaboration in response to shared regional threats such as North Korea’s nuclear and missile provocations. Additionally, the summit addressed economic security issues like advanced technologies and supply chains.
Kim Tae-hyo, Deputy Director of Security Policy Affairs at the South Korean Presidential Office, remarked on the summit, stating that ‘the three countries share a commitment to freedom, peace, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.’ Furthermore, regarding the contentious issue of treated water from Fukushima, South Korea and Japan, who have officially embarked on a path to reduce tensions announced that the discharge program would be determined through the International Atomic Energy Agency by Tokyo.[1]
After all these statements, China expressed its discomfort with the growing alliance among the three countries. Prior to the US-South Korea-Japan Summit, the Chinese state-run newspaper Global Times emphasized concerns that the summit could jeopardize the security of South Korea and Japan. It highlighted the intention of establishing a trilateral military alliance similar to a ‘Mini-NATO’ in Northeast Asia. China stated[2], ‘The path chosen by South Korea and Japan will leave completely different marks in the history books.’ During this period, ambassadors from China and Russia met with their counterparts in Seoul and Pyongyang.[3]
China’s Ambassador to South Korea, Xing Haiming, and Russia’s Ambassador to South Korea, Andrey Kulik, came together on Thursday, August 10, 2023, at the Chinese Embassy in South Korea. Simultaneously, in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, the Chinese and Russian ambassadors also held a meeting.[4] China’s Ambassador to North Korea, Wang Yajun, met with Russia’s Ambassador to North Korea, Alexander Matsegora, to discuss issues related to the Korean Peninsula and international and regional matters.[5]
Major powers like Russia and China might perceive the alliance between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan in the Indo-Pacific as a significant threat from their perspectives. To comprehend how this alliance could impact regional tensions, one must consider strategic and geopolitical factors:
Russian Perspective: Russia views this alliance in the Indo-Pacific as an attempt by the U.S. to enhance its influence, which is seen as a threat to its own strategic interests. The Moscow leadership regards hosting American military presence in Japan and South Korea as a destabilizing factor in the military equilibrium of the region. Moreover, the alliance’s objective of ensuring maritime security could also affect Russia’s energy exports.
Chinese Perspective: China interprets this tripartite alliance as a strategic move that could alter regional balances. Thus, Beijing might be concerned about how this alliance could limit its own security and strategic influence. Additionally, the deployment of greater military presence by these countries in China’s vicinity could create a sense of encirclement. China’s economic interests are also tied to secure maritime routes in the region, making the alliance’s efforts to ensure maritime security impactful for China as well.
This alliance could potentially lead to various tensions:
1. Military Tensions: The alliance’s military actions or exercises might escalate tensions in the region. This could prompt China to enhance its military capabilities, triggering a response of increased military presence from the U.S. and its allies. Additionally, the presence of North Korea in the region, combined with military exercises conducted by the U.S. and South Korea, frequently leads to heightened tensions.
2. Maritime Security Issues: The alliance’s maritime security operations, aimed at controlling sea routes and facilitating energy transportation, could potentially lead to conflicts.
3. Economic Impacts: The tensions caused by this alliance might affect economic stability in the region. Security concerns over trade routes could impact global trade and energy supply.
4. Regional Instability: As the alliance aims to curtail China’s regional influence, it could result in diplomatic and strategic tensions between China and other countries.
The Indo-Pacific plays a crucial role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Infrastructure investments and economic partnerships in the region enable China to expand its economic and political influence. On the other hand, Australia, a close ally of the United States, shares common concerns about China’s growing influence. Australia actively participates in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy. Another significant player in the region, India, continues its ‘Look to East’ policy, aiming to strengthen relations with Southeast Asian countries and Japan. While seeking to enhance its regional presence, India remains cautious in its approach towards China due to historical border tensions.[6]
Japan, a strong ally of the United States, perceives China’s maritime expansion as a security threat and collaborates closely with the U.S. to ensure regional stability. Japan’s investments in infrastructure and development projects in the Indo-Pacific aim to promote connectivity and balance China’s influence.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries respond diversely to the U.S.-China rivalry. While some ASEAN nations prefer stronger economic ties and avoiding direct conflict, others are concerned about China’s assertiveness and opt for closer relations with the U.S. Indonesia, as a neutral country, maintains a balanced foreign policy between the U.S. and China. Jakarta values economic cooperation with Beijing while aiming to uphold sovereignty in the South China Sea disputes.
Within this complex landscape, the U.S.-Japan-South Korea Summit can have significant impacts on regional dynamics. The question of China’s encirclement arises here. Strategic encirclement of China entails political, military, and economic efforts in international relations and geopolitics to encircle China. This strategy involves attempts by other countries or actors to limit or balance China’s power.
Security maneuvers may lead to regional rivalry, an arms race, and military tensions. Moreover, territorial disputes in the South China Sea might escalate. Economic competition could force countries to choose between the U.S. and China, impacting trade, investment, and infrastructure development. Strategic competition could weaken regional stability and hinder efforts to address shared problems like climate change, pandemics, and terrorism.
One way to mitigate the strategic competition between the U.S. and China is to establish the Indo-Pacific as an institutional framework facilitating regional cooperation, thereby promoting broader and deeper regionalism along with multilateralism. However, building institutional structures in the Indo-Pacific is a challenging task. The region faces multiple institutional, ideological, and practical obstacles. Many questions about the profound impacts of Indo-Pacific dynamics on regional order transition remain unanswered.
[1] “Korea, US, Japan to Discuss Security Cooperation At Trilateral Summit”, Korea Herald, https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20230813000183, (Erişim Tarihi: 13.08.2023).
[2] “Camp David Summit Could Be Dangerous For Japan, South Korea: Global Times Editorial”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1295785.shtml, (Erişim Tarihi: 13.08.2023).
[3] Same quote.
[4] “Envoys Of Russia, China Demonstrate Close Ties Ahead Of S. Korea-US-Japan Summit”, Korea Times, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/08/113_356949.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 13.08.2023).
[5] “Russian Ambassador To North Korea Meets With Chinese Counterpart In Pyongyang”, TASS, https://tass.com/politics/1659639, (Erişim Tarihi: 13.08.2023).
[6] Kai He-Mingjiang Li, “Understanding The Dynamics Of The Indo-Pacific: US-China Strategic Competition, Regional Actors, And Beyond”, International Affairs, 96(1), 2020, s. 1-7.
