In global energy markets, supply shocks that could arise from developments such as Iran’s potential restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz are not a weakness for Türkiye, but rather a powerful motivator accelerating its vision of full energy independence. Although our country meets a significant portion of its energy needs through imports, it is transforming this situation into a strategic advantage that supports its dynamic growth momentum. Investments directed towards domestic and national resources, especially Black Sea natural gas and Gabar oil, reveal our enormous potential for permanently breaking our dependence on foreign sources.
With these strategic steps, Türkiye has seized a historic opportunity for transformation on the path to energy independence; the effects of global price fluctuations on the current account balance are weakening day by day thanks to the rapid reaction capacity of our economy. By focusing on value-added exports and energy efficiency to strengthen its foreign trade balance, Türkiye is continuously increasing its economic resilience against global shocks.
The impact of fluctuations in global bottlenecks such as the Strait of Hormuz is always a matter carefully and successfully managed in Türkiye’s energy projections. Türkiye imports 93% of its consumed oil and more than 70% of its natural gas[i], and the share of its energy bill in total imports hovers around 20-25%[ii], makes international prices a critical variable for our balance of payments. However, this structural situation does not make Türkiye a passive observer; on the contrary, it prompts the country to develop proactive financial strategies to protect its foreign exchange balances and accelerate energy efficiency policies, thereby strengthening its macroeconomic resilience day by day.
Turning a Crisis into an Opportunity
Although the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil trade passes, is a vital transit point,[iii] Türkiye, has the capacity to turn these global risks into opportunities through its market diversification strategy. While strong diplomatic and commercial relations are maintained with traditional partners such as Iraq, Russia, and Iran in crude oil and natural gas supply, the supply portfolio is simultaneously being rapidly expanded through investments in shale gas and global LNG markets. Its unique geographical location offers Türkiye the flexibility to diversify its supply chain to new and different regions such as Africa, creating an excellent foundation for market diversification. Thanks to this strategic diversification, Türkiye has the potential to turn even such crises to its advantage, reinforcing its vision of becoming a regional energy trading hub rather than simply facing a cost from potential global supply disruptions.
The price transmission channel is important for analyzing the impact of global fluctuations on the domestic market. While past experiences show that energy import bills and current account deficits increased periodically when Brent crude oil prices exceeded $120 per barrel, Türkiye has learned from these experiences and significantly strengthened its economic defenses. For example, the temporary effects of a potential crisis in critical routes like the Strait of Hormuz on foreign exchange demand and inflation can now be offset much more successfully and quickly thanks to record-breaking exports, diversified financial instruments, and strong tourism revenues.[iv]
Strategic Reflexes…
The pass-through effect, defined as the reflection of global geopolitical developments on domestic markets, is becoming increasingly manageable in Türkiye thanks to its flexible and innovative market strategies. In the past, the heavy reliance on pipelines for natural gas supply prolonged the impact of international price fluctuations on industrial costs. However, today, Türkiye has taken giant strides towards overcoming this structural obstacle by increasing its LNG purchasing capacity to historical levels with Floating LNG Storage and Regasification vessels and new terminals. Thanks to this improved spot market flexibility, the pressure of global price increases on our industry’s energy costs is mitigated, and the international competitiveness of our producers is strongly supported.
While short-term adjustment options are inherently limited during times of crisis, Türkiye is able to rapidly activate its strategic reflexes. Strategic oil reserves act as a shield absorbing the initial shock, and our industrial and refinery infrastructure, highly open to technological innovations and capacity increases, possesses the flexibility to quickly integrate with alternative supply sources (Kazakhstan, Libya, or West Africa).[v] Steps taken to further expand strategic reserves and make refineries fully flexible will elevate the country’s energy security infrastructure to levels beyond world standards.
From a structural transformation perspective, Türkiye has written a tremendous success story in the last decade, increasing its installed wind and solar power capacity to over 30 gigawatts. This momentum, combined with the electrification of industry and green transformation goals, is laying a solid foundation to make Türkiye a regional leader in renewable energy. As the fruits of this long-term structural transformation are being reaped, proactive buffer policies in place during the transition period against global price shocks are also playing a strategic complementary role in strengthening the resilience of our economy.
Exit Strategies
On the policy side, four key strategic pillars stand out. First, energy diversification, multi-faceted long-term agreements that break dependence on a single source or route permanently secure our energy security. Second, the continuous expansion of LNG infrastructure; Türkiye has massively increased its capacity with the commissioning of Floating LNG Storage and Regasification vessels and new terminals, establishing a strong infrastructure to become a regional gas hub, beyond securing domestic demand. Third, accelerating investments in energy efficiency; reducing energy consumption per unit of production is the most sustainable way to shrink the import bill without compromising economic growth. Fourth, expanding advanced risk management (hedging) tools; these financial instruments provide a strong protective shield by minimizing the impact of energy price shocks on the exchange rate.
Türkiye’s current account deficit problem stemming from energy dependence and the risks it faces from geopolitical shocks can be mitigated through crisis management experience, supply diversification, and a pragmatic diplomacy approach. However, the obligatory dependence on energy suppliers sometimes restricts its foreign policy maneuvering space. Therefore, Türkiye, which has the capacity to overcome potential global supply crises with minimal damage, can only truly and permanently overcome these vulnerabilities not through diplomatic or economic crisis management alone, but through the implementation of a long-term, structural transformation strategy that requires diversifying its energy mix with domestic and renewable resources, shifting from energy-intensive industries to a high value-added and technology-oriented production model, and restructuring its foreign trade structure accordingly. Significant positive steps are already being taken in this direction.
Thus, any regional crisis that may arise strengthens, rather than weakens, Türkiye’s cooperation with its surroundings in the context of energy supply and supply chains. Consequently, crises at key points such as the Strait of Hormuz are not a weakness for Türkiye; rather, they serve as powerful catalysts that accelerate progress toward increasing energy efficiency, diversifying sources, expanding LNG infrastructure to massive levels, and deepening regional collaborations. Thanks to its extensive experience in crisis management and visionary statecraft, Türkiye fully possesses the power to transform such global challenges into a historic opportunity for a lasting and structural energy revolution.
[i] Uluslararası Enerji Ajansı (IEA), Turkey 2024 Energy Policy Review, Paris: IEA Publications, 2024, s. 27–29.
[ii] Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK), Dış Ticaret İstatistikleri — Mal grupları itibariyle ithalat, https://www.tuik.gov.tr, (Date of Access: 22.04.2026).
[iii] U.S. Energy Information Administration, “The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint”, EIA Today in Energy, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56bookmark (Date of Access: 22.04.2026).
[iv] Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2023). Enflasyon raporu 2023-IV. TCMB İletişim ve Dış İlişkiler Genel Müdürlüğü.
[v] IEA, Turkey 2024 Energy Policy Review, Paris: IEA Publications, 2024, s. 51. Türkiye’s strategic reserves, as reported to the International Energy Agency, have a volume equivalent to approximately 90 days of imports, actual government-controlled reserves remain lower.
