On January 14, 2024, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky said that the security agreement with the UK would serve as a model for similar agreements with other countries.[i] Zelensky made the following statements:[ii]
“Today, work is underway on security guarantees for Ukraine. Negotiations have started with Romania. Romania is the ninth country with which we are carrying out such bilateral work. There are all G7 countries, as well as the Netherlands and Romania. There will be more to come. We take the agreement we signed with the UK this week as an example. I am once again grateful to the UK for the very good and solid content of the agreement.”
Ukraine and the United Kingdom signed a security agreement on January 12, 2024. This agreement envisages a hundred-year partnership, additional annual aid for ten years and the provision of weapons to Ukraine in the event of an attack. Also on January 14, 2024, Ukraine and Romania started negotiations on signing a bilateral security agreement. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that since January Ukraine has been negotiating the signing of similar agreements with 30 partner countries that support the G7 declaration of support for Ukraine.[iii]
In February 2022, shortly before Russia attacked Ukraine, the UK, Poland and Ukraine announced a trilateral defense alliance.[iv] Nevertheless, this defense alliance did not prevent Russia from attacking Ukraine. After the outbreak of the war, the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) worked in solidarity to provide defense support to Ukraine. Since it would not be possible for Ukraine to become a member of NATO while the war continued, Western countries focused on finding another way to deter and defeat Russia on the ground. Today, it has become clear that NATO collectively cannot provide Ukraine with certain defense guarantees. Moreover, the revelation that the United States of America would not provide Ukraine with further arms-defense support has mobilized European countries, particularly the United Kingdom.
Since the beginning of the war, continental Europe has been worried about becoming Moscow’s new target, even though they are under NATO protection. However, attacking NATO states is not a decision Moscow can take lightly. Europe’s military-security strategy has also begun to change as a result of the Ukraine crisis. Rather than collective security, the emphasis is now on bilateral, trilateral and multilateral defense partnerships. In particular, the protection support provided by the United States to Continental Europe through NATO has diminished, while the European Union countries have begun to suffer severely from the fact that they have not yet established a European Army.
In order to respond to Russia after the Ukraine War, European states started to increase their military forces within the framework of NATO or through regional alliances. In this context, a Scandinavian and Baltic bloc has emerged within Europe. This is because the security agendas
of the Nordic and Baltic countries are close to each other. Baltic countries such as Latvia and Estonia, despite being NATO members, continue to work on strengthening their own defenses. Their main concern is that they will be defeated by a sudden Russian attack until NATO’s help arrives. Because their territories are not as large as Ukraine’s and it would take much less time for them to be invaded.
Latvia is reintroducing conscription in order to be able to defend itself against the threat of a sudden Russian attack without waiting for NATO’s help. In Eastern European countries, the threat of an attack from Russia is growing every day. The Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said that Russia will threaten NATO’s borders within three years.[v] Europe’s security environment is therefore irreparably militarized. This escalation race between Russia and NATO states could eventually lead to a conflict.
The Ukrainian Army’s decision to sign bilateral defense agreements with Romania, the Netherlands and the G7 countries shows that the West is now pursuing a new strategy to defend Ukraine. The root cause of this is basically the difference of opinion between the US and the UK on the future of Ukraine. Unable to find the support it was looking for from the US, the UK has now been forced to cooperate with continental Europe regarding the defense of Ukraine. The decisive stance of European countries in defense of Ukraine weakens Moscow’s hand against the West. Russia is trying to hit the West where it is weak, and if it fails in this goal, it may try to create new crises in Asia for a while to distract the West. Therefore, the West’s new defense-security guarantees to Ukraine may lead Russia to take new and unexpected steps elsewhere.
[i] “Security Agreement With Britain Will Be A Model For Similar Agreements With Other Countries – Zelensky”, Ukrinform, https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3813392-security-agreement-with-britain-will-be-a-model-for-similar-agreements-with-other-countries-zelensky.html, (Date Accessed: 16.01.2024).
[ii] Ibıd.
[iii] Ibıd.
[iv] “Ukrayna, İngiltere ve Polonya’dan Üçlü İttifak”, Trt Haber, https://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/ukrayna-ingiltere-ve-polonyadan-uclu-ittifak-655964.html, (Date Accessed: 16.01.2024).
[v] “Russia Could Threaten Nato Borders Within Three Years, Says Estonia”, The Times, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-could-threaten-nato-borders-within-three-years-says-estonia-0zfnndpkf?region=global, (Date Accessed: 16.01.2024).
