The US/Israel-Iran War, which began in June 2025, has reopened the discussion on the existing security architecture in the Middle East. It would not be correct to evaluate the war solely as a “military struggle between the US/Israel and Iran.” This process has directly affected the U.S.’s influence in the region, Israel’s security understanding, the vulnerabilities of Gulf Countries’ foreign policies, China’s economic rise, and Europe’s energy security strategies, while also increasing Türkiye’s geographical importance.
The situation revealed by the war indicates that the Middle East has entered a new geopolitical era. The main characteristics of this new era are multipolarity, shifting alliances, energy competition, transformation in defense technologies, and the security of trade corridors and logistics centers.
The Regional and Global Power of the USA is Undergoing a New Test
After World War II, the USA has been a major actor shaping the security architecture of the Middle East. Energy security, the protection of Israel, the containment of Iran, and the limitation of rival great powers’ influence in the Middle East, particularly China and Russia, have been among Washington’s top priorities.
However, this latest war against Iran has shown the limits of both the U.S. and Israel’s military capacity. Despite the intense military support, Iran could not be neutralized. In the failure of the US and Israel to achieve their strategic objectives in the war, the rapid depletion of ammunition stocks, the defense industry’s struggle to meet the war’s needs, disruptions in the logistics support chain, the inadequacy of troop numbers, and Iran’s military capacity to resist for an extended period have played a decisive role. These developments indicate that the United States’ capacity to be the sole hegemonic power in the Middle East is gradually weakening.
Iran Has Not Been Defeated by Maintaining Its Military and Strategic Deterrence
One of the most notable outcomes of the war is that Iran has not lost its superiority on the ground against “enemy forces” by maintaining its military capacity. Missile systems, drones, and regional proxy actors continue to be the key components of Iran’s deterrence strategy. Iran’s geopolitical and geostrategic position over the Strait of Hormuz stands out as an important factor that expands Tehran’s strategic maneuvering space in future negotiation processes. The preliminary agreement signed electronically between the USA and Iran on June 17, 2026, is more of a temporary arrangement that allows the parties to prepare for a new negotiation process rather than a permanent peace.
Gulf Countries Must Shift to a Multilateral Foreign Policy
The war has brought significant changes to the security understanding of the Gulf countries. During the war process, while military cooperation with the USA was maintained on one hand, diplomatic relations with Iran could not be completely severed on the other hand. The geopolitical and economic risks posed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have prompted regional countries to prioritize alternative trade routes, transportation corridors, and multifaceted economic integration projects. This situation shows that the understanding of security should be built not only on military but also on economic foundations. On the other hand, the future of Israel’s regional normalization policies is also dependent on developments in the Palestinian and Lebanese issues. As long as Israel continues its massacres against Palestine and Lebanon, the region will not be safe either. Therefore, Israel must withdraw from the territories it occupies. The crises in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have once again highlighted the importance of energy security. In addition, new railroad networks, port investments, digital infrastructures, and energy lines will be the most important areas of competition in the Middle East in the upcoming period.
The new balance of power in the Middle East is creating new opportunities for Türkiye, China, and Russia. China, while increasing its influence thru economic investments, does not want to take on direct military responsibilities. Russia, despite its limited capacity due to the Ukraine War, is trying to maintain its regional influence, especially thru Iran. Amid the changing and transforming regional and global fractures, Türkiye is striving to form strong new alliances in the Middle East. This picture shows that the Middle East is increasingly becoming a multipolar arena of competition.
Türkiye’s Strategic Importance is Increasing Every Day
Türkiye is one of the few countries that can utilize its NATO membership and regional diplomatic capacity together. Energy corridors, defense industry, transportation projects, and a multifaceted foreign policy approach will further increase Türkiye’s importance as a balancing actor in the upcoming period. In this context, Türkiye is one of the most important actors in the world for world peace, being “a producer of security, not a consumer of security.” However, the structural crises of the international system and the wars they incite are reshaping not only Türkiye’s but all regional countries’ security perceptions toward the Middle East. For example, excessive dependence on the Strait of Hormuz in the context of energy security has caused many states to face fundamental problems in their energy supply.
Strategic Cooperation of the Turkish and Muslim World in the New Regional and Global Order
Recent developments in the Middle East indicate that it is becoming increasingly difficult for external actors to provide regional security permanently. This situation has been the latest indication that regional countries need to develop their own security, development, and technology capacities thru joint mechanisms. Türkiye, an important transit country between East and West, is also a Middle Eastern country due to its historical background. For this reason, Türkiye has a significant role in establishing the security architecture of the Middle East.
In this context, the establishment of an institutionalized cooperation model based on common strategic interests between Türkiye, Egypt, Pakistan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia is of strategic importance for achieving lasting stability and regional security in the Middle East. The success of this cooperation depends on the principle of respecting the sovereignty of the countries, strengthening mutual trust, and implementing common interests in the political, economic, and security fields thru institutional mechanisms.
In the political sphere, the establishment of regular strategic dialog mechanisms, the development of joint diplomatic approaches to regional crises, and the implementation of confidence-building measures are of great importance.
In the economic field, the development of trade in local currencies, the establishment of joint investment funds, the enhancement of coordination in energy markets, and the planning of transportation corridors in a complementary manner will strengthen regional economic resilience.
The establishment of joint research centers in the field of science and technology, the development of joint projects in artificial intelligence, semiconductor technologies, cybersecurity, space studies, defense industry, and advanced manufacturing technologies will reduce the region’s dependence on external sources. Joint production and technology sharing in the defense industry will create a significant deterrent against external threats to the region.
In the cultural and sociological field, student and academic exchange programs, joint universities, joint media platforms, and cultural diplomacy projects will strengthen the trust between societies.
In the field of energy, joint projects developed in oil, natural gas, electricity transmission lines, and renewable energy investments will contribute to both economic development and regional stability.
The vision of multifaceted cooperation with Türkiye in the Middle East will not be solely security-focused. This vision will enhance economic development, scientific production, technological advancement, and social welfare.
Conclusion
The US/Israel-Iran War indicates that the Middle East has entered a new geopolitical era. The absolute superiority of the United States in the region has been significantly damaged. Iran is maintaining its deterrence against the US and Israel and is increasing this capacity both on the ground and at the diplomatic table every day. Iran derives this capacity from its geopolitical superiority over the Strait of Hormuz.
In the long term, Israel’s security depends on reshaping its security strategy based on regional peace and diplomacy. In other words, as long as Israel continues its genocides and massacres in the Middle East, it will become a state hated by countries around the world and isolated on the international stage. This situation will lead to the destruction of Israel.
The Gulf Countries developing a more independent and multifaceted foreign policy is extremely suitable for the interests of these countries. While China is increasing its economic influence, Russia is striving to maintain its current position. Türkiye, on the other hand, continues to be an important balancing country within the framework of changing dynamics.
However, it is not possible to achieve regional stability in the Middle East solely thru military deterrence. For sustainable security in the Middle East, the development of policies aimed at economic integration, scientific cooperation, technological production capacity, cultural interaction, and a vision of joint development with Türkiye is seen as a beneficial strategy.
From this perspective, the development of comprehensive cooperation mechanisms between Türkiye, Egypt, Pakistan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia will not only contribute to regional stability but also to the more effective positioning of the Turkish and Islamic worlds in the international system. On the other hand, these mechanisms will lay the groundwork for the formation of a new regional order where differences can be managed, interdependence is increased, and common interests are prioritized.
