The Asia-Pacific is a region of increasing importance as it is at the center of the struggle for influence between China and the United States of America (USA). Indeed, it can be argued that the regional struggle also plays an important role in the global competition between the United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the West and China. In this context, it can be said that the struggle between Washington and Beijing has geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic significance.
It is noteworthy that the US is the world’s largest economy,[1] while China is the world’s second largest economy. [2] On the other hand, China is at the top of the global supply chain.[3] Therefore, these two actors are the most economically powerful states in the world. For this reason, it should be emphasized that it is possible that the rivalry between the two countries could harden and even lead to the possibility of a hot conflict in the future, but this possibility opens the door to a scenario that would negatively affect all states.
As a matter of fact, it can be inferred that the main reason for China’s decreasing support for Russia in the Russia-Ukraine War that started on February 24, 2022 is due to the same reasons.[4] This is because the war has had a negative impact on the global economy and supply chains, which is why China wants the war to end as soon as possible.
On the other hand, given its economic and political importance in the global conjuncture, it can be stated that the US, like any other state, will consider its own national interests and may refrain from hardening the struggle in order not to harm them. In other words, it can be predicted that Washington will not think differently from Beijing on this issue.
It will be recalled that on June 6, 2023, a statement issued by Chinese officials stated that senior diplomats from China and the United States held “frank and productive” talks in Beijing and agreed to keep lines of communication open to prevent tensions from escalating into conflict.[5]
In this context, it was also confirmed that US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink visited China. In the statement made by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the following statements were made:[6]
“Mr. Kritenbrink and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu agreed to establish a sincere, constructive and productive channel of communication on improving China-US relations and appropriately managing differences.”
Similarly, a statement from the US State Department emphasized that “cordial and productive meetings were held” as part of efforts to maintain open lines of communication and enhance high-level diplomacy between the two countries.[7] Therefore, it can be assumed that both actors are conducting a rational foreign policy and will choose to reduce tensions in line with their interests, regardless of their rivalry.
As a result, it can be said that a possible hot conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea would be to the detriment of both states and would deal a major blow to the economies of these states with both global and regional effects. Therefore, it can be argued that the rivalry between the US and China will continue on an economic basis and will not turn into a hot conflict in the short term.
[1] “The World’s Largest Economies, 2022”, Ceo World Magazine, https://ceoworld.biz/2022/09/05/the-worlds-largest-economies-2022/, (Date of Accession: 09.06.2023).
[2] The World’s Largest Economies”, World Data Info, https://www.worlddata.info/largest-economies.php, (Date of Accession: 09.06.2023).
[3] “Tech War: Xi Jinping Vows to Protect Global Supply Chain as US Tensions, Covid-19 Controls Raise Decoupling Risks”, South China Morning Post, (Date of Accession: 09.06.2023).
[4] “Ukraine War: Russia Planning 24 February Offensive, Ukrainian Defence Minister Says”, British Broadcasting Corporation, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64492938, (Date of Accession: 09.06.2023).
[5] “Senior US, Chinese Diplomats Hold ‘Candid’ Talks to Avoid Escalation of Tensions’, Associated Press News, https://apnews.com/article/china-us-diplomats-meeting-f5b6ed8fd83f79f142eaa3e5da980482, (Date of Accession: 09.06.2023).
[6] “US, China Hold Talks to Avoid Escalation of Tension”, News Net Media, https://www.newsnetmedia.com/story/49040322/us-china-hold-talks-to-avoid-escalation-of-tension, (Date of Accession: 09.06.2023).
[7] “Senior US, Chinese Diplomats Hold ‘Candid’ Talks to Avoid Escalation of Tensions’, St. Joseph News-Press, https://www.newspressnow.com/news/world_news/senior-us-chinese-diplomats-hold-candid-talks-to-avoid-escalation-of-tensions/article_33477435-3788-59f5-8224-e5e771f10d33.html, (Date of Accession: 09.06.2023).
