Analysis

New Military Architecture in Eastern Europe: Military Deterrence, Hybrid Threats, and Turkey’s Strategic Role

NATO–EU is of critical importance for the sustainability of the transatlantic balance and the strengthening of crisis management capacity.
European countries are increasingly confronted with the need to strengthen their own defense capacities and invest more heavily in joint military projects.
European security is evolving into a hybrid structure shaped not solely by military power balances but also by economic resilience, institutional capacity, and multinational operational cooperation.

Paylaş

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Security crises in Eastern Europe have moved to the center of the European security architecture following the Russia–Ukraine War that began in 2022, transforming the region into a permanent zone of geopolitical tension. Russia’s military strategy has affected not only the conflict between the two states but also the entire Euro-Atlantic security order, turning the Baltic region, the Polish line, and the Black Sea basin into the forward frontiers of European security. This transformation has led to the replacement of the post–Cold War security approach, based on the assumption of relative stability, with a model once again focused on power competition, deterrence, and military preparedness.

In this process, the re-centralization of collective defense mechanisms has been decisive. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has permanently deployed multinational forces on its eastern flank, expanded air defense networks, and increased rapid reaction capacity. The strengthening of logistical lines, pre-positioned equipment depots, and large-scale exercises demonstrate the alliance’s heightened preparedness for crisis scenarios. These developments indicate that NATO has shifted from temporary deterrence policies to long-term regional defense planning.

The security environment in Eastern Europe is not defined solely by conventional military threats. Hybrid warfare methods, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, the proliferation of drone technologies, and sabotage attempts targeting critical infrastructure have significantly broadened the scope of security. In this context, energy pipelines, ports, and digital networks have acquired strategic importance equivalent to that of military targets, giving rise to a new paradigm in which security integrates the army and civilian domains. Energy supply security, in particular, has become a fundamental element of geopolitical vulnerability for Eastern European countries. The development of alternative supply sources, the diversification of energy infrastructure, and regional integration processes have emerged as integral components of security strategies. This transformation requires that security be assessed not only through military capacity but also through economic resilience, technological infrastructure, and societal resistance.

In this context, the European Union assumes a central role in the economic and institutional dimensions of security. The Union’s sanctions policies have been particularly evident in the economic sanctions imposed on Russia following the 2014 Ukraine Crisis and the expanded energy embargoes after 2022. For example, the EU’s decision to halt natural gas purchases from Russia represents a concrete manifestation of its strategy to use energy supply security as a security instrument. This demonstrates that the EU employs economic tools directly as strategic instruments within its security policy. Defense industry funds, through the European Defence Fund, enhance defense cooperation among member states and aim to develop capacity across Europe by financing joint projects. Collaborative initiatives in air defense systems and unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) technologies strengthen the EU’s defense capabilities. Additionally, military mobility projects enable rapid and effective movement of forces among member states, particularly providing swift response capabilities in crises near NATO’s eastern borders. The financial and military support provided to Ukraine demonstrates that the EU has moved beyond its traditional soft-power role and has become a direct geopolitical actor in regional conflicts. The combination of macroeconomic assistance, weapons and ammunition shipments, and training and logistical support demonstrates the EU’s multidimensional approach to security.

Ukraine’s integration has decisively shaped the expansion of the regional security complex into the Euro-Atlantic system. The acceleration of Ukraine’s European Union membership perspective, the advancement of joint reform processes, and the strengthening of economic ties, alongside the deepening of institutional cooperation with NATO, have reinforced a model in which security is produced through political and economic integration. Within this framework, the European Union and its member states have provided comprehensive financial and military support to Ukraine. Through the European Peace Facility and national contributions, approximately €69.3 billion in military assistance has been delivered, and more than 85,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been included in training programs.[1] In addition, efforts are ongoing to enhance the capacity of the European defense industry through the European Defence Fund and other instruments.

On the NATO side, member states have committed, under the “Long-Term Security Assistance Pledge”, to provide security assistance at a level of at least €40 billion[2] per year, with additional resources allocated to defense and training programs. In addition, through the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), the coordination of Ukraine’s weapons, ammunition, and training needs is being carried out within the Alliance framework. These multidimensional forms of support increase Russia’s perception of strategic encirclement and lead Moscow to adopt a more interventionist stance in its security policies. From the European perspective, however, a new understanding of security has emerged in which border protection and institutional integration are deeply intertwined. The combination of NATO’s deterrence and defense capacity with the EU’s institutional support, economic resilience, and crisis management instruments demonstrates the construction of a hybrid governance model that simultaneously strengthens the military, economic, and institutional dimensions of security in the specific case of Ukraine.

The transatlantic dimension defines the structural framework of this transformation. Although the United States continues to exercise leadership within NATO, the shift of global priorities toward the Asia-Pacific region, fluctuations in American domestic politics, and changes in defense budget priorities have accelerated debates on strategic autonomy in Europe. European countries are increasingly confronted with the need to strengthen their own defense capacities and invest more heavily in joint military projects. Nevertheless, the current distribution of military capabilities indicates that European security in the short and medium term remains largely dependent on the NATO umbrella and the U.S. military presence. In particular, U.S. forces stationed along Eastern Europe’s border regions and NATO’s forward deterrence measures demonstrate that European security is effectively shaped through transatlantic relations. Therefore, NATO–EU coordination is not merely an intra-European arrangement but is also of critical importance for the sustainability of the transatlantic balance and the strengthening of crisis management capacity.

Within this transformation, Turkey’s role stands out prominently. As one of the few NATO countries with a coastline on the Black Sea, Turkey occupies a key position in regional deterrence, maritime security, and the protection of logistical transit routes. Its military presence in the Black Sea, the security of sea lanes, and its capacity to respond to regional crises position Turkey as a central actor both in NATO’s deterrence strategy and in the broader regional security architecture. Moreover, the regular participation of the Turkish Armed Forces in Alliance operations and NATO exercises demonstrates that Turkey is not only a regional actor but also a strategic stakeholder in the overall architecture of European security. For example, NATO’s “Sea Breeze” exercises and joint naval patrols in the Black Sea concretely illustrate Turkey’s role in maritime security and in safeguarding logistical transit routes. Furthermore, Turkey’s grain corridor initiatives have contributed to the continuity of international trade and food security via the Black Sea, thereby strengthening crisis management capacity. In addition, cooperation in areas such as air defense, radar integration, and early warning systems further reinforces Turkey’s strategic importance within NATO. Consequently, Turkey emerges as a critical actor both in ensuring regional stability and in enhancing the effectiveness of transatlantic security mechanisms; this role, shaped by the geopolitical dynamics of the Black Sea, energy security considerations, and the protection of logistical routes, makes cooperation with NATO and the EU in multidimensional security domains essential.

One recent development demonstrating the operational dimension of European security is the large-scale NATO exercises held in Germany. The Steadfast Dart 2026 exercise, carried out in Germany during January–February 2026, was the Alliance’s largest and most comprehensive military maneuver of the year. It involved approximately 10,000 personnel from 11 NATO member states and featured more than 1,500 land vehicles, around 30 fighter aircraft, 15 helicopters, and 15 warships. Turkey participated in the exercise with approximately 2,000 troops, making significant contributions through its land and naval elements and logistical support.[3] This marked an important development in Turkey’s deployment of forces on such a scale in Northern Europe. During the maritime phase of the exercise, the Turkish Naval Task Group participated under the leadership of Turkey’s largest amphibious assault ship, TCG Anadolu, alongside various naval assets. Furthermore, within the framework of the exercise, realistic operational scenarios were conducted for the first time together with Bayraktar TB3 unmanned combat aerial vehicles.[4]

This comprehensive exercise provided a platform in which the rapid deployment of multinational forces, airspace coordination, naval and land operations, as well as cyber and logistical support capacities were tested in a coordinated manner. Turkey’s active participation in such exercises directly contributes to enhancing operational cohesion and interoperability within the Alliance, while also offering an opportunity to showcase its defense industry products in an international context, test its modern operational capabilities alongside allied partners, and strengthen the effectiveness of NATO’s deterrence strategy in Europe. Thus, European security is shaped not only by European Union member states but through the collective operational capacity of all Alliance members.

Security crises in Eastern Europe have driven a structural transformation of European security, placing the region at the center of permanent militarization, defense-industry integration, and resilience-building against hybrid threats. This process has not been limited to strengthening traditional military capabilities; it has also incorporated multidimensional areas such as energy security, protection of critical infrastructure, cyber defense, and information sharing into the broader security paradigm. NATO’s military deterrence, combined with the EU’s institutional capacity, such as economic sanctions, financial assistance, and crisis management tools, and the operational contributions of regional actors like Turkey, Poland, and the Baltic states, has produced a multilayered and hybrid security order.

Turkey’s deterrence role in the Black Sea, its efforts to secure grain corridors and logistical transit routes, its participation in NATO exercises, and the integration of its defense industry capacity concretize both the regional and transatlantic dimensions of this model. Consequently, European security is evolving into a hybrid structure shaped not solely by military power balances but also by economic resilience, institutional capacity, and multinational operational cooperation. This new model clearly demonstrates that Europe’s future security architecture will be built upon a hybrid, integration-based framework supported by strong transatlantic ties.

[1] “EU military support for Ukraine”, European Council, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/military-support-ukraine/, (Day Accessed: 27.02.2026).

[2] “Relations with Ukraine”, NATO, https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/partnerships-and-cooperation/relations-with-ukraine, (Day Accessed: 27.02.2026).

[3] “Allied force awakens: Türkiye deploys 2,000 troops for NATO drills”, Türkiye Today, https://www.turkiyetoday.com/nation/allied-force-awakens-turkiye-deploys-2000-troops-for-nato-drills-3214207, (Day Accessed: 27.02.2026).

[4] “Türkiye for 1st time uses combat drones in NATO’s largest exercise, says naval commander”, AA News, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/turkiye-for-1st-time-uses-combat-drones-in-nato-s-largest-exercise-says-naval-commander/3834094, (Day Accessed: 27.02.2026).

Prof. Dr. Murat ERCAN
Prof. Dr. Murat ERCAN
Born in Aksaray in 1980, Prof. Murat Ercan graduated with a bachelor's and master's degree in Political Science and International Relations from the Faculty of Political Science at the University of Vienna between 1998 and 2004. Ercan was accepted into the doctoral program in the Department of International Relations at the same university in 2004. He completed his doctoral studies in 2006 and began working as an Assistant Professor at Bilecik Şeyh Edebali University in 2008. Ercan was promoted to Associate Professor in the field of International Relations-European Union in 2014 and to Professor in 2019. In the same year, he transferred to the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences at Anadolu University. Since 2008, Prof. Ercan has served as department chair, deputy director of the Institute of Social Sciences, and director of the Vocational School. Since 2008, he has taught undergraduate, master's, and doctoral level courses related to his field of expertise at Bilecik Şeyh Edebali University and Anadolu University. Ercan's courses can be listed as follows: European Union, Turkiye-EU Relations, Turkish Foreign Policy, International Relations, International Organizations, Current International Issues, Public International Law, Global Politics and Security, and Turkiye and Turkic World Relations. Throughout his academic career, Prof. Murat Ercan has authored numerous articles, books, and project studies in the field of International Relations, focusing on the European Union, EU-Turkiye Relations, Turkish Foreign Policy, and Regional Policies. In addition, Prof. Ercan has organized national and international conferences and seminars and served as chair of the organizing committee for these events. Currently serving as a faculty member in the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at Anadolu University's Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Prof. Murat Ercan is married and has two children.

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