General elections in the UK were expected to be held at the end of this year, after the 2019 general elections. The unexpected state of economic decline paved the way for early elections. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak declared that general elections would be held on July 4, 2024. Sunak’s decision surprised many because approximately all the election polls pointed out the Labour Party was ahead.[1] In this context, the Labor Party is expected to be in power after 13 years. Hence, it is predicted that the Labour Party leader Keir Starmer leader Keir Starmer would be in power and have the majority in the parliament.[2]
According to the polls, the Conservative Party is way behind the opposition Labour Party. The polls published by the Financial Times indicate that the Labour Party has 44.3%, the Conservative party 23.2%, the Reform Party 11.5%, the Liberal Democrats 9.4%, the Greens 6.2%.[3]
So far, many are curious about Sunak’s motivation for calling for early elections and the reasons behind the Labour Party’s popularity. To begin with, it might be said that the Conservative Party would not benefit if the elections were held in December, considering economic-politic circumstances worsen. Sunak’s government’s foreign and domestic policy decisions pave the way for a continuing decline in public support. Due to this, early elections were called in an attempt to avoid this deterioration.[4]
Therefore, Sunak’s decision to call for an early election was heavily influenced by economic factors. The Prime Minister made the decision after he realized the hopes for economic recovery were waning, and he made the early election decision due to economic factors. Persistent increasing trends in unemployment, a slow rate of inflation recovery, and adverse reports of international financial institutions were the indicators that economic downfall would continue. Briefly, it was obvious that achieving economic growth would not be possible until next year.
Conservative government aimed to have 1% economic growth; however, 0.6% economic growth in the first three months of the year led to a decline in economic recovery expectations. In the previous Conservative government, Sunak experienced, as the Chancellor of the Exchequer, faced with economic challenges. Sunak’s government mainly focused on inflation, low growth rates, and immigration but failed to focus on economic matters.
Even though the Conservative Party has been forming the government for 13 years, it is unlikely that they will secure winning in the upcoming elections. In 2010, after 13 years of Labour Party governance, David Cameron won the election. Still, he could not secure the majority in the parliament and had to form a coalition government with centrist Liberal Democrats.
Regardless of the challenges, Cameron kept the coalition together until the 2015 general elections. He secured the majority in the parliament, and he was able to form a Conservative government for the first time since 1997. However, the Brexit Referendum led to 4 prime minister changes in the Conservative government. The failure to pass the Brexit deal at the beginning paved the way for the downfall of Theresa May ’s government, and in 2019, Boris Johnson came to power.
After multiple scandals, Johson had to resign in 2022, and Liz Truss, for 45 days, came into power, but economic decline worsened in her time. The pound lost value, and inflation began to rise. Lizz Trus, known for her radical foreign policy perspectives, continued with her tough stance and failed to manage economic issues during her term. Consequently, the Conservative Party agreed upon bringing Rishi Sunak in charge as the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, but his government failed to halt this economic decline.
Several essential problems would boost the Labour Party’s votes to increase. The economy will still be considered as the primary issue. The UK is struggling with high inflation and slow economic growth. On October 22, the Conservative government managed the inflation rate, which peaked around 11.1%. However, economic stagnation in the last six months of 2023 led to questioning the government’s economic policies. Yet, one of the most controversial subjects has been the immigration policy, which involves sending illegal immigrants to Rwanda to pursue their asylum claims. For the last few years, the uncontrollable entrance of migrants and asylum seekers to the UK has led to concerns regarding the government’s failure to control its borders. It was claimed that Rwanda’s policy is violating international law and will not stop migration.[5]
As the election swiftly approaches, it is stated that Sunak has been losing his confidence within the party. The upcoming elections might be considered challenging for the Conservative government since they failed to achieve successful policies. However, there is still a possibility that the polls might be wrong, but it is accepted by many that the Labour Party will win in the upcoming elections.
[1] “Tale of campaign contrasts as UK parties step out on day one”, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/77acf455-8421-4dd9-a054-dff61d29a41d, (Date of Accession: 27.05.2024).
[2] “Why UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called an election he’s expected to lose”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/24/uk/prime-minister-rishi-sunak-election-intl/index.html, (Date of Accession: 27.05.2024).
[3] “Tale of campaign contrasts as UK parties step out on day one”, a.g.e., (Date of Accession: 27.05.2024).
[4] “Sunak dashed for July election because hopes of UK economic recovery are fading”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/26/sunak-dashed-for-july-election-because-hopes-of-uk-economic-recovery-are-fading, (Date of Accession: 27.05.2024).
[5] “UK election has been called for July 4. Here’s what to know”, Voa News, https://www.voanews.com/a/uk-election-has-been-called-for-july-4-here-s-what-to-know/7626594.html, (Date of Accession: 27.05.2024).
