Although Central Asian states have various underground and surface resources, they may experience energy shortages due to the harsh winter season. For this reason, the countries of the region are focusing on domestic consumption due to the negative impact of winter and are reducing or suspending energy exports. In order to overcome this problem and to reveal the energy potential through different sectors, three road maps have been determined by the countries of the region. First of all, the actors try to realize projects on a national scale. Secondly, joint projects are carried out with countries outside the region. Finally, Central Asian states are involved in projects based on regional cooperation.[1]
One of the most important projects that the Central Asian states are trying to realize on a regional basis is the Kambar-Ata-1 Hydroelectric Power Plant, which is planned to be built on the Narın River. The history of Kambar-Ata-1 dates back to 1986. However, upon the dissolution of the Soviet Union, this project was suspended. In 2008, Russia promised to provide $1.7 billion in financing support for the implementation of the project.[2] However, while the necessary studies are not carried out; The developments in Ukraine since the 2010s have led Russia to this region. Then, with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 in violation of international law, the Moscow administration began to focus on its western borders. In 2015, reactions began to rise in Bishkek after Moscow did not take the necessary steps. The question that came to mind at this point was who would finance the project. Bishkek also negotiated with a British and a Czech company for the plant.[3] However, these negotiations have been inconclusive.[4]
In this process, Uzbekistan opposed the construction of Kambar-Ata-1 and criticized the project. Because it is thought that the power plant to be built on the river will cut off the water significantly. At this point, the most important source of concern has been the disruption of cotton production. However, both the increase in the energy need in the country, the understanding that various issues can be agreed with the rapprochement between Bishkek and Tashkent, and the formation of interdependence between the parties as a result of the deepening and expansion of relations have softened Uzbekistan’s attitude. In this context, Uzbekistan, which needs water for cotton production in summer, has been involved in this project in order to solve the problems of energy in winter.
Upon Russia’s withdrawal from the project, Kyrgyzstan started to hold various negotiations on the project. At this stage, a contact was also established with Uzbekistan. Since 2016, the relations between Bishkek and Tashkent have deepened to include Kambar-Ata-1. As a result of the negotiations, it was announced that Uzbekistan would participate in the construction process of Kambar-Ata-1 in October 2017. In this period, it was seen that the agreement on the joint use of the Orto-Tokoy (Kasansay) Water Reservoir in Jalalabad played a decisive role in convincing Uzbekistan. Thus, Kyrgyzstan has demonstrated that it acts within the framework of the win-win principle and will not use water as a tool as a result of the construction of Kambar-Ata-1.
On April 14, 2022, it was announced that Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan would begin the construction process of Kambar-Ata-1. The dam, which is planned to be 256 meters high, is thought to hold 5.4 billion m3 of water. In addition, the construction of the plant, which will produce an average of 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year, is expected to take eight to ten years. For this purpose, a feasibility study has been initiated for the project.[5]
It is thought that it will take five years to prepare the site and make other preparations, which is the first stage for the construction of the power plant, which started on June 8, 2022. Then the construction of the power plant will begin. It has been announced that this whole process requires an investment of 2 to 5 billion dollars. However, Kyrgyzstan has started construction without any investors to show its determination in the project.[6] In November 2022, a meeting was held with the French energy company EDF. In the statement made on March 4, 2023, it is understood that a new negotiation was held, and the main topic of the talks was further discussion of the financial aspects of the implementation of the project and the terms of cooperation.[7] However, there is no clear data that the company will carry out this construction.
A development on January 6, 2023 has led to renewed attention to Central Asia and Kambar-Ata-1. A meeting was held at the Ministry of Energy of the Kyrgyz Republic between the Energy Ministers of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. During the meeting, the parties agreed on a road map for the construction of Kambar-Ata-1. Minister of Energy of the Kyrgyz Republic Taalaibek Ibraev, who made a statement about the meeting, stated that Kyrgyzstan will become an energy exporting country with the project.
This situation will also have a positive impact on Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in terms of energy. In addition, the construction of the power plant will bring with it the construction of roads, bridges and power lines. It is clear that this situation will make a significant contribution to the economies of the countries of the region and the states involved in the project. During the meeting between the ministers, it was announced that full support was given to the creation of a joint venture.[8]
On March 16, 2023, another meeting was held between the Kyrgyz, Uzbek and Kazakh delegations. At the meeting, the parties discussed the implementation of the roadmap determined by the energy ministers and evaluated the draft texts on the main principles. It was announced that the parties that agreed on the steps necessary for the implementation of the project will continue the negotiations.[9]
As a result, it is understood that Kyrgyzstan is determined to build Kambar-Ata-1. However, instead of building the project alone, Bishkek first tried to find support in the international context. However, the inconclusive negotiations with non-regional actors and companies have led the Bishkek administration to other actors in Central Asia. The increasing need for energy in Central Asia, the developing relations on the Bishkek-Tashkent line and the desire of Kazakhstan to be involved in such a project have increased the possibility of the project being implemented. At this point, Kambar-Ata-1, which stands out as an important project in terms of meeting the energy needs of Central Asia, is a project that unites the states of the region.
[1] Emrah Kaya, “Orta Asya’nın Artan Enerji İhtiyacı ve Alternatif Yöntemler”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/orta-asyanin-artan-enerji-ihtiyaci-ve-alternatif-yontemler/, (Date of Accession: 23.03.2023).
[2] “Dam Conflict Between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan”, Climate Diplomacy, https://climate-diplomacy.org/case-studies/dam-conflict-between-kyrgyzstan-and-uzbekistan, (Date of Accession: 23.03.2023).
[3] Catherine Putz, “Kyrgyz, Uzbek, Kazakh Energy Ministers Sign Kambar-Ata-1 Roadmap”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2023/01/kyrgyz-uzbek-kazakh-energy-ministers-sign-kambar-ata-1-roadmap/, (Date of Accession: 23.03.2023).
[4] Bruce Pannier, “Central Asia in Focus”, Caspian Policy Center, https://www.caspianpolicy.org/research/security-and-politics-program-spp/central-asia-in-focus-13526, (Date of Accession: 23.03.2023).
[5] “Kambarata HPP-1: About 1.5 Billion Soms Allocated for Preparatory Work”, 24 KG, https://24.kg/english/236257_Kambarata_HPP-1_About_15_billion_soms_allocated_for_preparatory_work/#:~:text=Kambarata%20HPP%2D1%20will%20be,installed%20capacity%20of%201%2C860%20megawatts, (Date of Accession: 23.03.2023).
[6] “Kyrgyzstan Starts Construction of the Kambar-Ata—1 Hydroelectric Power Plant”, Big Asia, https://bigasia.ru/en/content/news/business/kirgiziya-pristupaet-k-stroitelstvu-ges-kambar-ata-1/, (Date of Accession: 23.03.2023).
[7] “Состоялись переговоры французской энергетической компании «EDF Energy» по вопросу строительства Камбаратинской ГЭС-1”, https://www.gov.kg/ru/post/s/22703-kambar-ata-1-gesin-kuruu-boyuncha-frantsiyalyk-edf-energy-kompaniyasy-menen-sylshlr-zhrgzld, (Date of Accession: 23.03.2023).
[8] “Ministers of Energy of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan Sign a “Road Map” for the Construction of Kambar-Ata HPP-1”, Uz Daily, https://www.uzdaily.uz/en/post/78431, (Date of Accession: 23.03.2023).
[9] “Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan Discuss the Project of Kambarata HPP-1”, Kun.uz, https://kun.uz/en/news/2023/03/16/uzbekistan-kyrgyzstan-and-kazakhstan-discuss-the-project-of-kambarata-hpp-1, (Date of Accession: 23.03.2023).
