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The Iranian Dimension of 15th July…

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It’s been two years since July 15. However, when considering the sensitivity of the transition process and the dimension of internal and external reactions to it, the consequences still continue to preserve its place on the agenda. Hence the threat of a “second 15 July” still exists.

Under current conditions there remains the possibility of a new eventuation. This is due to the continued existence of conditions and relationships expressed in previous articles (for instance; “The External Dimension of the July 15 Coup”, “The Russian Factor in the Outgoing Process of the 15 July Betrayal Coup”, “Is July 15 a Revenge on Turkey?”, “Is it a Coup Alert or a Call for it from Dugin?”). In other words, the April 16, June 27 and July 8-9 processes which pushed the United States (US)/NATO directly into an intervention in Turkey, has gained further momentum.

First of all, it is better to make this determination once again: July 15 is a significant breaking and turning point for Turkish foreign policy as well as Turkish political life. The reason is due to discomfort caused by Turkey through its change-transformation process which led to the July 15th coup attempt.

When it’s about Turkey; a number of concerns caused by the parallelism of Turkish foreign policy and the process of internal structuring lead to very different reflexes. Indeed, a large number of concrete examples can be seen throughout the historical development of Turkish political life since the last period of the Ottoman Empire, especially after the 1838 Treaty of Balta Limani (Anglo-Ottoman Treaty).

To broach the subject a little more… The balance policy, which has become inevitable since the last period of the Ottomans, was not always implemented efficiently, neither did it provide the  desired results.  To this end, “conflicts of interest” and “survival” that come to the fore in the context of the Ottoman and “others” undoubtedly have an important place.

The situation, which has not changed through time and is barred from alteration is the role given to Turkey since the Ottoman Empire as being part of the “Western Club”. For this reason, the state was pushed towards a western conformation while resistance to this or different outputs have always been “punished.”

The failed July 15th coup attempt is not exempt from this determination. Indeed, the article titled “Russian Factor in the Outgoing Process of 15 July Betrayal Coup” written two years ago, highlighted the state reconstruction with balanced maneuverability and mobility provided by the Russian dimension in Turkish foreign policy as a vital reason for the coup which indeed was a sabotage attempt.

Three Critical Dates Before and After July 15 …

In the event of combining different or irrelevant-unrelated events, the causal link that led to the 15th of July can be easily visualized. In this context, it is worth to take a quick look at what happened just before and shortly after the failed coup attempt without going too far.

The first and foremost event is the April 16th, 2017 referendum. With this referendum and through the support of the national will, the Republic of Turkey rejected the system imposed by the United States in 1946 to make way for a new process that sees Turkey highly regarded within the international system. (Therefore, the West sees the April 16 referendum as an important step in the process of withdrawing from the Western bloc and had to act against it.)

Another decisive event is the normalization of relations with Russia starting from 27th of June as well as launching a new unnamed alliance system, against a possible operation of the West against itself, especially through the US/NATO.  With the relief conceded from the regional alliance symbolized by Astana, Turkey rejects being a “foreign policy tool” of the West which has camouflaged this case under an alliance relation. Moreover, Ankara by the means of foreign policy maneuvers achieve the opportunity to construct a more independent and powerful state.

At the Warsaw Summit on July 8-9, Turkey refuses as well as vetoes to be a part of the US/NATO initiatives towards Russia. This veto is therefore considered as an invitation for 15th of July, due to the fact that NATO declares  Turkey a risky country pushes the button for an intervention

Although Turkey has received some compliments in the recent Brussels Summit, it yet faces another crucial test; which is the Iranian dimension…

Could Iran be a “Reason for a New Coup?”

Probably “yes”. On assumption that Turkey maintains its stance towards Russia and Iran, in particular, could lead to a new intervention process. There are two major experiences/examples that support the case. First is, Menderes’s reconciliation with the USSR in order to inculcate  a “Russian Balance” in Turkish foreign policy. The other was Turkey’s perseverance of a foreign policy that favored status quo in the Middle East in 2003 which obliquely asserted non-interventionist stance and denominated Saddam to stay in power.

As of today, Turkey is not only opposing a possible intervention against Iran, but rather acting in cohesion in order to eliminate regional threats and crisis. For instance; the Saudi Arabian-Qatar Crisis, the so-called September 25 Referendum initiated by Barzani which advocated “GMEP Kurdistan” and the developments based on northern Syria…

Moreover, Iran is a party to the Astana process that Turkey has built with Russia. Hence, bilateral relationship is even deeper than they appear. Therefore, since 28th December 2017, Turkey has moved away from destabilization initiatives against its neighbor. The statement of Iran’s ambassador to Ankara on the issue and finally, the statement made by Reza Hakan Tekin — Turkey’s ambassador to Tehran — a few days ago in which he stated that; “the unilateral sanctions of the US against Iran are illegal” is a significant indication that support this aspect.

Therefore, Turkey’s standpoint is straightforward… However, it is important to see how the US/NATO duo would respond to this stance (although this is a known secret). Turkey is once again commencing with a significant process and to declare in advance; “As it did not compromise its relations with Russia, Ankara will display a similar judgement towards Iran as well”.

At this point, a second July 15 initiative will be the end of numerous events as well as the announcement and beginning of a new process!

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Born in 1969, Dörtyol-Hatay, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol graduated from Boğaziçi University (BU), Department of Political Science and International Relations in 1993. After completing his master's degree at BU in 1995, Erol was accepted to the PhD program at BU in the same year. After completing his PhD at Ankara University in 2005, Erol became an associate professor in the field of “International Relations” in 2009 and a professor in 2014. Erol worked at the Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies (ASAM) between 2000 and 2006 and and served as the General Coordinator of ASAM for a period. In 2009, he served as also Founding Chairman and Board Member of the Institute for Strategic Thinking (SDE). He is also the Founding President of the Center for International Strategy and Security Studies (USGAM) and the President of the International Relations Institute of the New Türkiye Strategic Research Center (YTSAM). Prof. Erol has also served as the Director of Gazi University Strategic Research Center (GAZISAM). In 2007, Prof. Erol received the “Turkish World Service Award” from the Writers and Artists Foundation of the Turkic World (TÜRKSAV), and has received numerous awards for his academic work and his activities in the media. Some of them can be listed as follows: 2013 “Print Media of the Year Award” by the Association of Contemporary Democrats, 2015 “APM 10th Year Service Award”, “2015 Press-Intellectual of the Year Award” by the Writers' Union of Türkiye (YTB), “2016 Volunteer Ambassadors Media Honor Award” by the Anatolian Village Guards and Martyrs' Families, “2016 Türkiye Honor Award” by the Yoruk Turkmen Federations. Prof. Erol has 15 book studies. The names of some of them are as follows: “The United States of Turks from Dream to Reality”, “Türkiye-EU Relations: Foreign Policy and Internal Structure Problems”, “The New Great Game in Eurasia”, “The Search for Strategy in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Search for Security in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Republic of Türkiye-Russian Federation Relations”, “The Cold Organization of Hot Peace: The New NATO”, “Theoretical Approaches in Foreign Policy Analysis: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Crises and Crisis Management: Actors and Case Studies”, “Kazakhstan” and “Current Issues in International Relations”. Since 2002, Prof. Erol, who has carried out radio programs such as “Eurasia Agenda”, “Strategic Perspective”, “Global Perspective”, “Analysis”, “File”, “News Desk”, “The Other Side of the Agenda” on TRT Türkiye's voice and TRT Radio 1 (Ankara Radio), made the programs “Arayış” on TRT INT television between 2004-2007, “Beyond the Border” on Kanal A television between 2007-2010 and “Foreign Policy Agenda” on BBN TÜRK television in 2020-2021. Prof. Erol, whose foreign policy column “Arayış” was published in Milli Gazete between 2012-2018, is consulted for his expertise in numerous national and international media outlets such as television, radio, newspapers, news websites and magazines. Prof. Erol, who also taught at Gazi University Department of International Relations and Ankara University Latin American Studies Center (LAMER) between 2006-2018, has been continuing his academic career as a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University Department of International Relations since 2018. Since 2006, Prof. Erol has also taught in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ufuk University. The main areas of interest and expertise of Prof. Erol and the titles of his courses at the undergraduate, master's and doctoral levels in this area are as follows: “Geopolitics”, “Security”, “Intelligence”, “Crisis Management”, “Current Issues in International Relations”, “Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Russian Foreign Policy”, “US Foreign Policy” and “Central Asia and South Asia”. Prof. Erol, whose articles-evaluations have been published in many journals and newspapers, has been editor of academic journals such as “Eurasia File”, “Strategic Analysis”, “Strategic Thinking”, “Gazi Regional Studies”, “The Journal of SSPS”, “Black Sea Studies”. He is currently in the editorial boards of “Regional Studies,” “International Crisis and Political Research,” “Gazi Academic View”, “Ege University Turkish World Surveys”, “Ankara International Social Sciences”, “Democracy Platform”. Prof. Erol, who has been working as the Founding President of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) since 2016, is married and has three children.