There is a balancing act between Russia and the West in Indian foreign policy. It is argued that as a result of the United States’ pressures, India has begun to lose its strategic autonomy and tends to the West. On the other hand, New Delhi’s strategic ties with Moscow has continued. All these developments oblige us to analyze the trends in India’s foreign policy.
From this point of view, Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents the views it received from Murad Ali, Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies Islamabad (CISS), in order to evaluate India’s strategic dialogue with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its regional implications.
1. New Delhi continues its strategic dialogue with NATO. How do you interpret India’s this step? Does this mean that India is losing its strategic autonomy?
First of all, as India has no strategic autonomy at all. India is linked with the US through a number of multilateral arrangements, including Quad, the India-USA civil nuclear agreement, LEMOA, and BECA to mention a few. In short India is heavily reliant on other countries for military weapons, nuclear technology, fuel and foreign direct investment (FDI). Because of this, I think India’s strategic autonomy has been compromised by its reliance on other nations, especially the US and Russia. Secondly, China, which New Delhi views as a serious threat, will undoubtedly be at the core of India’s security dialogue with NATO. In reality, except from the occasional border skirmishes, India faces no threat from China. But it is using the conflict with China to its advantage in order to win strategic assistance from the US and other western nations.
2. How do you think Russia, which previously described the QUAD as the “Asian NATO”, is reacting to this dialogue between NATO and India?
Russia has consistently expressed resentment toward NATO’s expansion outside of its traditional strategic zone. As a result, Russia is likely to view India’s participation in the NATO’s security dialogue with suspicion. Moscow views NATO as a Eurocentric security apparatus, so any reach out to Asia will be strongly opposed by Moscow. Russia will closely monitor India’s relationship with NATO, and it may develop political rift with India if it perceives any strategic cooperation between NATO and India. Although, India has assured Russia that its relations with the West or NATO will not jeopardize Russia’s status as a strategic partner, but this will probably hurt India’s image in Russia.
3. Can we argue that India was left alone by Russia and China, and as a result, New Delhi shifted more towards the Western axis?
I don’t think that India was left alone by Russia and China and both have respectable political and economic connections with India. Even now, India’s commercial links are substantial towards China, its defense ties are tilted toward Russia. While China and Russia won’t desert India, they will surely keep an eye on any regional repercussions of the India-NATO conference. Actually, by allying with both US and European nations, India is aiming to increase the scope of its geopolitical options.
4. How do you think China will react to this ever-increasing NATO activity in the Asia-Pacific?
I believe China will not respond favorably to NATO’s growing presence in the Asia-Pacific region. On the other hand, NATO views China as a potential danger to the world system as seen in the summit in 2021. Mao Ning, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, responded by denouncing NATO for deeming China a threat and for increasing its military relations with Asia. He also defended China as a force for peace and stability at regional as well as at global level. China opposes NATO’s expansion beyond its traditional defense zone, as well as its military and security connections with the nations of the Asia-Pacific. China has made it clear that the Asia-Pacific is not the scene of a geopolitical warfare, and it opposes the bloc-confrontation mentality of the Cold War. China also stated that it would respect the peaceful activities of all parties toward maximizing their interests in the Asia-Pacific region.
5. Do you think India may have put its own security at greater risk by integrating with NATO? Will this contribute positively or negatively to India’s security?
I do not believe that India will integrate with NATO. Yes, India has been a partner of NATO since 2004 and has been actively involved in the Organization’s activities. However, if India establishes strategic relations with NATO, it will elicit strong reactions from both China and Russia. As I have already stated that NATO expansion outside of its conventional defense zone is vehemently opposed by both China and Russia. Similarly, it will have a negative impact on South Asian security by causing an arms race and a security crisis in the region. South Asia already faces difficult security conditions, which will likely exacerbate by the India-NATO alliance.
