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The US is Seeking a New Scheme via “Two and a Half Threat”

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The whole world is under an immense threat due to the recent crisis in Syria. It would be over simplifying to consider this crisis as a mere “intelligent missile response” to “chemical use” and could dupe many.

This is the situation we face as we head to a nuclear apocalypse! We still haven’t well perceived the scheme. However, this is another US classic which imbeciles the whole world.

Therefore weathering the missile attacks carried out by the US as; “enactment”, “scheme”, “collusion”, “symbolic”, “for the sake of appearances”, “show” or announcing that two-thirds of the missiles sent out by the old man (Trump) have been brought down by primitive air defence systems (S-125, S-200, Buk and Kvadratibi) as being “less smart then its master” has no meaning beyond deceiving.

The scheme is being re-established and the parties (the “Waxing East” and the “Weakening West”) plan to reveal their strength by reinforcing their ranks through “maximum deterrence-determination” demonstrations while giving a name to the new world order. For this, while the “old order” is put under threat by the rising East, it too is becoming a target.

Although Russia and China are part of the ancient Cold War era, they are in fact two powers which have lost their status with the dissolution of the USSR.

Furthermore, the have become a target of the US, which could not establish a unipolar world after the Cold War.

The US has Amended its Means-Tools!

This is the underlying factor for the US to once again refer to Cold War era instruments in its struggle with Russia and China. The US fails to establish collaborations (such as SCO and BRICS) which the “other” blocks have achieved. It has neither the time nor the money to do so. Instead it prefers destroying them. This is one of the essential reasons why the US developed the method of proxy wars: to cut costs and provide legitimate base.

The aim of the “Rising East” or the “Anti-Americanist/Western” bloc, which is to target the institutions, structures, understanding and law of the Cold War and thus the Anglo-Saxon domination seem to have driven the US to prefer this method. In this respect, the emphases made by the US following the attacks are paramount.

On the other hand, the US seems to have noticed the boomerang effect of this method. In a more concrete phrase, the US is aware that its version of world order is about to prevail. Therefore, at least within the context of the Middle-East the US has begun to shift its means-tools. With this crisis, the US has had the opportunity to execute its threats, which have been revived for a long time.

 Marketing the “Chinese Menace” Following the “Russian Threat” …

China’s assertion on the latest crisis is as remarkable as Russia’s. In this regard, China has chosen its side and put forward quite a reaction against the US, which is quite outstanding. China, in conjunction with this crisis, has put forth its military deterrence and naval power by showing presence in the Mediterranean. It has sent the message “I am here. You cannot move ahead without my consent”. It is a turning point for China, which until yesterday has sought cooperation within competition and pursued a soft power policy which now exhibit hard power strategies and openly challenges the US.

From this point of view, China seems to have been duped by the US, which wanted Beijing to fall for the scheme for a very long time. China insistently did not fall for this trap. The United States, which could not achieve what it desired from South China Sea crisis, seems to have made considerable gains in the Eastern Mediterranean. Therefore, the US will be utilising sally from China to large extent.

With this crisis, the US will market the Chinese threat, to the whole world, especially the West. The US which has increased its influence over European-Western institutions (such the EU and NATO) on the pretext of Russian threat, seems to have gained an opportunity to spread its influence over a wider geography through China’s asseverations.

Iran, which is considered as a “half-threat” in the Syrian crisis is brought to prominence by the US and is utilised in the Islamic geography centric Gulf crisis is also exploiting “Russia-China-Iran” as a threat towards Turkic-Islamic geography.

The receptivity of the US-NATO towards Turkey has caused a change in “means-tools”. Undoubtedly the same applies to the “Russian-Iranian-Chinese” trio. Ankara wants to turn this into an opportunity. This forms the basis of the “difficulty” it faces in the process.

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Born in 1969, Dörtyol-Hatay, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol graduated from Boğaziçi University (BU), Department of Political Science and International Relations in 1993. After completing his master's degree at BU in 1995, Erol was accepted to the PhD program at BU in the same year. After completing his PhD at Ankara University in 2005, Erol became an associate professor in the field of “International Relations” in 2009 and a professor in 2014. Erol worked at the Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies (ASAM) between 2000 and 2006 and and served as the General Coordinator of ASAM for a period. In 2009, he served as also Founding Chairman and Board Member of the Institute for Strategic Thinking (SDE). He is also the Founding President of the Center for International Strategy and Security Studies (USGAM) and the President of the International Relations Institute of the New Türkiye Strategic Research Center (YTSAM). Prof. Erol has also served as the Director of Gazi University Strategic Research Center (GAZISAM). In 2007, Prof. Erol received the “Turkish World Service Award” from the Writers and Artists Foundation of the Turkic World (TÜRKSAV), and has received numerous awards for his academic work and his activities in the media. Some of them can be listed as follows: 2013 “Print Media of the Year Award” by the Association of Contemporary Democrats, 2015 “APM 10th Year Service Award”, “2015 Press-Intellectual of the Year Award” by the Writers' Union of Türkiye (YTB), “2016 Volunteer Ambassadors Media Honor Award” by the Anatolian Village Guards and Martyrs' Families, “2016 Türkiye Honor Award” by the Yoruk Turkmen Federations. Prof. Erol has 15 book studies. The names of some of them are as follows: “The United States of Turks from Dream to Reality”, “Türkiye-EU Relations: Foreign Policy and Internal Structure Problems”, “The New Great Game in Eurasia”, “The Search for Strategy in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Search for Security in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Republic of Türkiye-Russian Federation Relations”, “The Cold Organization of Hot Peace: The New NATO”, “Theoretical Approaches in Foreign Policy Analysis: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Crises and Crisis Management: Actors and Case Studies”, “Kazakhstan” and “Current Issues in International Relations”. Since 2002, Prof. Erol, who has carried out radio programs such as “Eurasia Agenda”, “Strategic Perspective”, “Global Perspective”, “Analysis”, “File”, “News Desk”, “The Other Side of the Agenda” on TRT Türkiye's voice and TRT Radio 1 (Ankara Radio), made the programs “Arayış” on TRT INT television between 2004-2007, “Beyond the Border” on Kanal A television between 2007-2010 and “Foreign Policy Agenda” on BBN TÜRK television in 2020-2021. Prof. Erol, whose foreign policy column “Arayış” was published in Milli Gazete between 2012-2018, is consulted for his expertise in numerous national and international media outlets such as television, radio, newspapers, news websites and magazines. Prof. Erol, who also taught at Gazi University Department of International Relations and Ankara University Latin American Studies Center (LAMER) between 2006-2018, has been continuing his academic career as a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University Department of International Relations since 2018. Since 2006, Prof. Erol has also taught in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ufuk University. The main areas of interest and expertise of Prof. Erol and the titles of his courses at the undergraduate, master's and doctoral levels in this area are as follows: “Geopolitics”, “Security”, “Intelligence”, “Crisis Management”, “Current Issues in International Relations”, “Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Russian Foreign Policy”, “US Foreign Policy” and “Central Asia and South Asia”. Prof. Erol, whose articles-evaluations have been published in many journals and newspapers, has been editor of academic journals such as “Eurasia File”, “Strategic Analysis”, “Strategic Thinking”, “Gazi Regional Studies”, “The Journal of SSPS”, “Black Sea Studies”. He is currently in the editorial boards of “Regional Studies,” “International Crisis and Political Research,” “Gazi Academic View”, “Ege University Turkish World Surveys”, “Ankara International Social Sciences”, “Democracy Platform”. Prof. Erol, who has been working as the Founding President of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) since 2016, is married and has three children.