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New Game of US: “Arab-Kurdish Alliance” in the South of Turkey?

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It was once again seen that the US targetted not only Assad, but also Turkey. The United States is seeking to regain Turkey at the earliest opportunity and is not alone in this regard. Its acting in common solidarity with the European Union and NATO are not avoiding the attention. The aftermath of the attack on targets in Syria confirms this once again.

Utterance of Emmanuel Macron, President of France, who said the attack was perfectly successful that “With those strikes we have separated the Russians and the Turks on this. The Turks condemned the chemical weapons,” and statements by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and a breaking news report on the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) all amount to the same thing in this context.

Macron’s description is briefly just like the mentioned above. The NATO Secretary General outlines the following: 1) The air operation conducted by the US, France and Britain in Syria was the clear message given to the Assad regime and its backers, Russia and Iran. 2) Turkey’s support for operation is gratifying. 3) Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defense system is a national decision. 4) We will continue to work with Turkey.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the United States plans to establish a contingent of Arabs following the withdrawal of troops from Syria. Moreover, the Arab contingent will be implemented after the cleaning of terrorist organization ISIS in the region. Meanwhile, it should be noted in this context the news that the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) has requested weapons and ammunition for a group of 60 to 65 thousand people, including the PYD terrorist organization in Syria in 2019 budget.

Well, what are all these developments pointing to, how to read them. Let’s sort:

US/West is seriously uncomfortable with the Turkey-Russia-Iran trio; in other words, the Astana-Sochi processes, from its reflection into the field and diplomacy table in operational terms, its spoiling the game.

The US/West seeks to disrupt the co-operation between this trio. In many respects, Turkey is seen as the weakest link here. The resultant experiences that the US/West has in this respect play an extremely encouraging role.

The ongoing “trust issue” between the Turkish-Russian-Iranian trio is seen as an important opportunity that should be considered until the end. As a matter of fact, the main goal of Macron’s post-attack remark and NATO Secretary-General’s statements is to further deepen the issue.

Turkey-Russia-Iran trio is still moving on a delicate ground. The crisis on 24 November 2015 continues to be very encouraging in this regard. The United States/West is pursuing such a new crisis. Russia and Iran are trying to be provoked for this.

US/Western threat perception has a decisive place on the basis of the difficulty and fragility in the tripartite relationship especially in the Turkish dimension. To break this perception, the US/West is taking some steps recently. At the beginning of this, there are constant calls for “cooperation” and “unity” messages.

The 2019 budget and an Arab Army output instead of US troops remain a warning about the emergence of a bigger problem involving the “Kurdish-Arab Alliance” if Turkey continues its current stance.

In other words, the “Arab power” to be placed in the south of Turkey and in the north of Syria is another version of the plan to force Ankara to co-operate since 2013 (since the military coup and later in Egypt).

This plan, as with Turkey and the Arab world been confronted once again, it is desired to deepen the problem with the Kurdish regionalism. This point brings to mind the two-state formation of the Greater Middle East (GME) and their patron powers. (Meanwhile, when Turkey said to the US to clean ISIS, “We do this, with the Jeddah-based “Islamic Army” you just forget the PYD-YWG/PKK terrorist organization”, then Washington said “no”. So, what’s now changed?)

What is France doing to overtake its role?

Another actor in this crisis that attracts as much attention as China was undoubtedly France. Though France has been trying to play a part in it since the Arab Spring. And because he knows that he can’t do it alone, he is making a crisis opportunity and attaching much importance to himself.

Even the dogs in the street know that France can not do anything despite the USA and Germany, how to evaluate these outputs of Macron? Actually the answer is simple: Complex! It is unlikely that France will be left out of this position at a time when Britain has drawn a new road map for a multi-polar world and Germany is resolutely pursuing this policy.

Obviously, France wants to be a pole; but he has no power. Moreover, no one is taking him seriously, especially Trump. So it is not possible for France to play a role on his own. He wants to achieve this goal by demonstrating himself as a stronger and more important actor than he is. That’s what the “obligation” to act with Trump is.

Therefore, France is trying to achieve an area of ​​interest in itself by displaying an attitude of “jackal-hyena mixture”. But these attitudes can push him into the role of the West’s usable, unwanted man; especially in terms of the US-Germany duo. At the very least, Germany can not keep up with such statements of France for a long time.

And one last point: Macron’ utterance that the attack of his country with the United States and Britain on Syria separated Turkey from Russia, is a clear admission that the US does not want much. Moreover, his demonstrating the image of directing the US politics or Trump is like the last straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Frankly, France had never fallen in these cases. Pity!

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Born in 1969, Dörtyol-Hatay, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol graduated from Boğaziçi University (BU), Department of Political Science and International Relations in 1993. After completing his master's degree at BU in 1995, Erol was accepted to the PhD program at BU in the same year. After completing his PhD at Ankara University in 2005, Erol became an associate professor in the field of “International Relations” in 2009 and a professor in 2014. Erol worked at the Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies (ASAM) between 2000 and 2006 and and served as the General Coordinator of ASAM for a period. In 2009, he served as also Founding Chairman and Board Member of the Institute for Strategic Thinking (SDE). He is also the Founding President of the Center for International Strategy and Security Studies (USGAM) and the President of the International Relations Institute of the New Türkiye Strategic Research Center (YTSAM). Prof. Erol has also served as the Director of Gazi University Strategic Research Center (GAZISAM). In 2007, Prof. Erol received the “Turkish World Service Award” from the Writers and Artists Foundation of the Turkic World (TÜRKSAV), and has received numerous awards for his academic work and his activities in the media. Some of them can be listed as follows: 2013 “Print Media of the Year Award” by the Association of Contemporary Democrats, 2015 “APM 10th Year Service Award”, “2015 Press-Intellectual of the Year Award” by the Writers' Union of Türkiye (YTB), “2016 Volunteer Ambassadors Media Honor Award” by the Anatolian Village Guards and Martyrs' Families, “2016 Türkiye Honor Award” by the Yoruk Turkmen Federations. Prof. Erol has 15 book studies. The names of some of them are as follows: “The United States of Turks from Dream to Reality”, “Türkiye-EU Relations: Foreign Policy and Internal Structure Problems”, “The New Great Game in Eurasia”, “The Search for Strategy in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Search for Security in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Republic of Türkiye-Russian Federation Relations”, “The Cold Organization of Hot Peace: The New NATO”, “Theoretical Approaches in Foreign Policy Analysis: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Crises and Crisis Management: Actors and Case Studies”, “Kazakhstan” and “Current Issues in International Relations”. Since 2002, Prof. Erol, who has carried out radio programs such as “Eurasia Agenda”, “Strategic Perspective”, “Global Perspective”, “Analysis”, “File”, “News Desk”, “The Other Side of the Agenda” on TRT Türkiye's voice and TRT Radio 1 (Ankara Radio), made the programs “Arayış” on TRT INT television between 2004-2007, “Beyond the Border” on Kanal A television between 2007-2010 and “Foreign Policy Agenda” on BBN TÜRK television in 2020-2021. Prof. Erol, whose foreign policy column “Arayış” was published in Milli Gazete between 2012-2018, is consulted for his expertise in numerous national and international media outlets such as television, radio, newspapers, news websites and magazines. Prof. Erol, who also taught at Gazi University Department of International Relations and Ankara University Latin American Studies Center (LAMER) between 2006-2018, has been continuing his academic career as a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University Department of International Relations since 2018. Since 2006, Prof. Erol has also taught in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ufuk University. The main areas of interest and expertise of Prof. Erol and the titles of his courses at the undergraduate, master's and doctoral levels in this area are as follows: “Geopolitics”, “Security”, “Intelligence”, “Crisis Management”, “Current Issues in International Relations”, “Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Russian Foreign Policy”, “US Foreign Policy” and “Central Asia and South Asia”. Prof. Erol, whose articles-evaluations have been published in many journals and newspapers, has been editor of academic journals such as “Eurasia File”, “Strategic Analysis”, “Strategic Thinking”, “Gazi Regional Studies”, “The Journal of SSPS”, “Black Sea Studies”. He is currently in the editorial boards of “Regional Studies,” “International Crisis and Political Research,” “Gazi Academic View”, “Ege University Turkish World Surveys”, “Ankara International Social Sciences”, “Democracy Platform”. Prof. Erol, who has been working as the Founding President of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) since 2016, is married and has three children.